Drinking on the rooftop: DIAA Bubble Watch, Day 7
The update for day 8 can be found here
So this is where my Wilkinson Bubble watches will be in the future. A few disclaimers first: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playofffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
With that said, here goes a very early version of this seasons bubble watch. It is kind of logical, that nobody is safe yet, with this much season to go. That is why I have a subcategory in the work to dos. 'On their way' means that this team is highly likely to make it in even tough theoretically a lot of things could still go wrong. 'A hill to climb' means this team could make it on their own devices, but it isn't particularly likely given the opponents and previous results.
SWAC
On their way:
Texas Southern (WIS: 6-1, WIS: 5, SOS: 18): Came out on top of AAM yesterday once again. Despite a loss in OOC everything is currently dandy since the SOS was quite tough and there were also good wins. Unless Southern has more than one unforeseen stumbles they are playing for a high seed.
Alabama A&M (6-1, WIS: 11 SOS: 21): The SOS will take a hit tough, once AAM hits the intra divisional schedule. Still, AAM could probably lose twice and would still comfortably make the playoffs.
Work to do:
Grambling State (5-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 47): Grambling is one of those teams that at the start of the season have to look and first make sure they make the playoffs. After a long drought, they got there both of the last two seasons. This season looks like a close call so far. OOC went very medium. Losses to Lehigh and Western Carolina are not that bad, but there are no good wins yet. With games vs Southern, AAM and Liberty remaining, there is ample chance to lose again. Going 2-1 vs these teams would put them likely in. go 1-2 and it should be close, but I’d not be optimistic.
A hill to climb:
Liberty (4-3, WIS: 40, SOS: 49): A blowout vs drake and two loses when opponents took the lead with less than 20 seconds to go have Liberty reeling. The good news is, that with games vs Southern and Grambling there are nice opportunities to shine. However, they probably could not afford another loss, so this will be tough particularly since Liberty hasn’t beaten Southern in quite some time. But first Liberty needs to take care of GW tomorrow
Needs help:
Gardner-Webb (4-3, WIS: 90, SOS: 102): This is a rebuild, so talent is not there yet. 2 losses to SIMs are the consequence. With the lowish SOS, GW needs to win out(which is not likely) and would probably also go lucky.
Southern Conference
Should be a fun race this season. Particularly the east winner is not a foregone conclusion. Altough my money is on Northwestern in the west.
On their way:
Appalachian State (7-0, WIS: 16, SOS: 87): Was the OOC all that impressive? No. But App State is unblemished and just got past ETSU and avoided Northwestern in cross division. Even two losses to WCU and GSo would probably be ok, so App State is definitely in a good position.
Work to do:
Georgia Southern (6-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 50) Beat FIU and Jacksonville but also took a vicious demolition by EKU. Things are currently looking good, but games vs App State and WCU will be good tests and if GSo loses both, this could get close.
Western Carolina (6-1, WIS: 31 SOS: 92), Going unblemished through a OOC with Grambling being the only decent team on the schedule, didn’t do too much for WCU. The loss to Northwestern yesterday means that despite a likely improvement to the SOS WCU still might need to beat a human in its games vs GSU and App State.
Northwestern State (5-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 35): It was a decent OOC, that will likely win in value as the season progresses. Still, with two losses being 2-1 vs teeams ranked 30-40 is keeping it close. If Northwestern loses to ETSU, that may be ok, but more than that would be problematic.
A hill to climb:
East Tennessee State (2-5, WIS: 32, SOS: 2): Vhovard had a schedule full of humans in his first season at this rebuild. And I know the WIS ranking looks ok. But not all losses were really that ok, and 5 losses is five losses. And with the SOS likely to drop, ETSU definitely needs to win out to have a shot and then likely also needs a soft bubble.
Needs help:
Nichols State (4-3, WIS: 84, SOS: 103): At this point Nichols is already close ton eliminated, because the SOS is likely not gonna end up being good enough to get in with 3 losses. That is if Nichols were to win out, which is not likely.
Pioneer Football League
Well, look at the north. Three teams that are 7-0. Should be a fun division race.
On their way:
San Diego (7-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 30): Looks better on paper than in reality… but looks really good on paper with the number one WIS ranking. And to be fair, wins over PSU and Cal Poly are nothing to sneeze at. And the SOS will also not completely crash. That said, with games vs Drake, Dayton and Jacksonville, there is still potential to lose a good number of seeds.
Drake (7-0, WIS: 10, SOS: 79): That W over EKU is mighty impressive to me. And with only Dayton and SDU remaining, this should be about as safe as it gets at this point in the season.
Work to do:
Dayton (7-0, WIS: 23, SOS: 116): After missing the playoffs last season, Dayton is currently doing what they can. That said, with drawing only SIMs in cross division, the SOS looks aweful. It doesn’t help that clear wins over holy cross and EIU are not quite as impressive this season as in the past few seasons. The SOS will improve a bit, but with it starting so low, its not sure that Dayton can afford to lose to both Drake and San Diego.
Needs help:
Charleston Southern (3-4, WIS: 55, SOS: 34): There are three understandable losses, but the one th a SIM puts CSU in trouble. They might win the division, but with the SOS likely to fall, I think CSU really only has the Conference Championship as a viable path.
Jacksonville (3-4, WIS: 50, SOS: 54): In a similar situation as CSU but got there in a different way. That OOC was full of humans and JSU just couldn’t get past any of them. With tomorrows game vs SDU JSU has a theoretical chance to shine. But I don’t think wareagle has the talent close enough yet.
Ohio Valley Conference
The OVC is completely rebooted with a lot of coaches who are in their first or second season at their programs. I guess Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State and EKU are the primary favorites.
On their way:
Jacksonville State (6-1. WIS: 4, SOS: 9): Great OOC schedule combined with the OVC gauntlet results in a really nice SOS. Go through this with 6-1 and you are well on your way towards securing a bid. That said there are still 3 human Intelligence teams to be played, each of which Is 5-2.
Tennessee Tech (7-0, WIS: 8 SOS: 60): If you are in the OVC east, then the season is only just starting. And nobody is arriving more prepared than T-Tech. T-tech can afford at least 3 losses, and they will be favored in all games.
Work to do:
Eastern Kentucky (5-2, WIS: 3, SOS: 1): Well 2 losses is not great this early in the season, but then again, this is deservedly the number 1 SOS and there are 3 wins over top 20 teams and a 108-20 (!) trhashing of UTM. With three humans on the schedule, there is definitely still some work to do.
Samford (5-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 57): If you are in the OVC you’ll have a decent SOS, so maybe it makes sense to schedule light in the OOC. Still that loss to a SIM may come to bite Samford despite wins over SFA and EIU. The UTM game tomorrow looks very important. But may not be enough to quite get in.
Iona (5-2, WIS: 34, SOS: 71): Iona drew one of the easier cross divisions in the OVC and hasn’t really passed any tests yet including a loss to 2-5 ETSU. But in reality the season is only just starting, and the SOS will improve. But with games vs 6 humans left, Iona probably needs to go at least 4-2, maybe 5-1 to get in.
A hill to climb:
Eastern Illinois (4-3, WIS: 54 SOS: 59),Tennessee-Martin (4-3, WIS: 52, SOS: 43), St. Peters (4-3, WIS: 56, SOS:58): While the talent levels are somewhat different (EIU failed to recruit but had good talent on the roster, UTM recruited like gang busters), all three teams are in pretty much the same situation bubble wise: with 3 losses and a middle of the road SOS that is probably the improve, they may potentially be able to afford one more loss, but definitely not more. And with everyone still having T-Tech on the docket aside from the other north team, the margin for failure is raiser thin
Needs help:
Marist (1-6, WIS: 38, SOS:3): The WIS ranking still looks ok because the SOS is great. But Ops second season was a bit too challenging for the talent level (0-6 vs humans), and unless Marist pulls of loads of upsets, this will not move up.
NEC
We’ll get a preview of the likely conference championship tomorrow.
On their way:
Albany (6-1, WIS: 7, SOS: 16): There were three good OOC opponents and Albany beat two of them. Tomorrows game vs Lehigh should be a good test, but with the SOS being nice, Albany is looking very good, particularly as they got margin for error.
Lehigh (7-0, WIS: 6, SOS: 56): Had an interesting –but manageable- OOC and went flawless with wins over Howard, Grambling and Jacksonville. Unless there is a loss or two to a SIM hidden somewhere, they will easily make the tournament.
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (5-2, WIS: 51: SOS: 91): Could porkbellybobs third season be the one where he finally makes it to the dance? Its possible. But for a win over ETSU, a loss to RMU made up. The SOS is likely to end somewhere between 70 and 90, which would make it a very close call, should CCU lose to Lehigh, but I would be just a smidgen pessimistic.
Needs help:
Robert Morris: even if RMU were to pull the upset over Albany and win out, the SOS would likely still need some soft bubble to get in. However, ruining CCUs conference start yesterday was a step in the right direction.
