Drinking on the rooftop: DIAA Bubble Watch, Day 8
As always: here are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
The Day 9 update can be found here
So at this point, the first teams are starting to get to should be in status. Most will still be in the work to do list.
SWAC
I took Gardner-Webb of the board after todays loss, because 4 losses with this SOS is too much.
Should be in:
Alabama A&M (7-1, WIS: 7 SOS: 21): Moved up to should be in with todays win over Grambling, as the opportunities to book losses has diminished and the WIS ranking improved.
On their way:
Texas Southern (WIS: 7-1, WIS: 8, SOS: 25): Came out on top of AAM thursday once again. Despite a loss in OOC everything is currently dandy since the SOS was quite tough and there were also good wins. Unless Southern has more than one unforeseen stumbles they are playing for a high seed.
Work to do:
Grambling State (5-3, WIS: 33, SOS: 35): Todays loss likely eliminated some margin, but Grambling isn’t out of it yet. Grambling still has no bad losses, and is still looking for a signature win. If GSU won out, they’d be in, but with games vs Southern, and Liberty remaining, one could easily seeing Grambling losing at least one more game. Which would have them needing for their SOS to stay about where it is.
Liberty (5-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 50): Took care of buissness vs GW today and thus kept in the race. The two last second losses still hurt tough. The good news is, that with games vs Southern and Grambling there are nice opportunities to shine. However, they probably could not afford another loss, so this will be tough particularly since Liberty hasn’t beaten Southern in quite some time.
MEAC
Should be in:
Howard (6-2, WIS: 9, SOS: 3): Despite only being 6-2 Howard is already a “should be in”. That is because the SOS is high, and Howard is not likely to lose even one one game vs the remaining all SIM schedule much less two. And they’d likely even get in with another loss.
Work to do:
La Salle (8-0, WIS: 12, SOS: 77): In hypnotoads first season LaSalle has beaten 4 human teams between 30 and 50. That is really nice, but Duquesne tomorrow might be a tougher test. That said, LaSalle is well on its way toward the playoffs. There are three humans remaining, and if they can beat at least one of them and don’t stumble vs SIM AIs, this is definitely a playoff team for the first time in 24 seasons.
Duquesne (7-1, WIS: 21, SOS: 76): Couldn’t quite hold of Savannah in OOC, did beat Harvard and then missed Howard in cross division. That is the whole season so far for Duquesne. With three human games coming up in a row, it is about to get more interesting, and Duquesne probably needs to win one, maybe two of those three games. The one tomorrow vs LaSalle looks to be the most difficult.
Needs help:
Norfolk State (3-5, WIS: 44, SOS: 21): Despite 5 losses (all of them to top 30 teams), things aren’t quite done for Norfolk State, but they might need a soft bubble. Oh and to win out… little detail that with three humans remaining who are a combined 20-4.
Delaware State (5-3, WIS: 79, SOS: 117): With this kind of SOS 3 losses (and 2 of them to SIM AIs is usually already too much. The SOS will improve from here on out, the results might not.
Ivy League
I did not include Cornell, because 5 losses with that SOS is too much.
Should be in:
Princeton: (8-0, WIS: 15, SOS: 87): Princeton played a boring OOC (only SIMs), but in conference they already did beat Harvard and Yale. Unless they start losing to SIM AIs, they will make the playoffs.
Work to do:
Yale (7-1, WIS: 14, SOS: 37): Nothing but SIMs in the OOC, but some with decent records, plus a win over Holy Cross today, has Yale in good position without having actually done too much. The SOS will suffer tough, there are 3 1-7 teams and a 3-5 Harvard still on the docket. Still Yale can afford probably two more losses, and there is only one human team let, so after missing the playoffs last season, Yale is likely to get back this season.
Needs help:
Harvard (3-5, WIS: 36, SOS: 6): In my opinion, the OOC was even thougher than it looks on paper but 1-4 is never good. Combine that with a last minute loss to Princeton, and a bad in division schedule likely lowering that SOS and Harvard is in trouble concerning at-larges and probably needs a soft bubble. Still Harvard is the defending conference champ, and they just might win the conference yet again. After all they were close to beating Princeton.
Holy Cross (4-4, WIS: 61, SOS: 55): No horrible losses, but so far 0-4 vs humans. Holy cross definitely needs to win out, just to have a chance.
Gateway
Nobody is quite safe yet. The surprise is, that Savannah is the closest.
Work to do:
Savannah State (8-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 81): This might be SSUs best season in some time. SSU has already beaten 3 top 50 teams including Duquesne and has at least two losses margin to the bubble, with only 2 human teams left. Tomorrows game vs NIU is a chance to show if SSU really is as good as its ranking says. My money is on NIU for now tough.
Youngstown State (5-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 32): This is not a usual situation for a program that ended up in the WIS top ten in 11 of the last 12 seasons. YSU took forgivable losses toe Tx State, Jacksonville and a beating from a surging NIU. But right now, there are no wins over tams with a winning record. Now given, that there are no other humans in the division YSU will make the conference championship. Alas the SOS will suffer, the remaining oponents are 6-34. If YSU should lose the conference championship, it might be a very close call.
Northern Iowa (6-2, WIS: 20, SOS: 39): Considering the level of challenges Babcick took on so far, the SOS is unfairly low. Its not Babs’ fault that wins over EIU, YSU and Marist look a lot worse than they usually do. As a consequence tough, NIU better go at least 1-1 vs SSU and FIU, just in order not to risk anything playoff wise.
Florida International (6-2, WIS: 37, SOS: 101): Hasn’t missed the playoffs in 5 seasons, but getting there is not a given this season. FIU played two good human teams and lost and beat 6 SIMs who killed the SOS with a combined record of 8-56. The SOS may improve slightly, but they definitely have to beat at least one of NIU and SSU and it feels like if FIU loses even one more game they might find themselves just on the bad side of the bubble.
Big Sky
The Big sky shows us a lot of different iterations of 6-2 and how to get there. I don’t have SFA on the board, due to my 7 losses rule.
Work to do:
St Mary’s (8-0, WIS: 19, SOS: 108): St Marys is better than its ranking, which is depressed due to playing five 1-7 SIMs in OOC, but wins over TxStat and Montana say good things. Still, the SOS is what it is, and St Marys would be on the bubble with more than two losses vs its three remaining human opponents.
Cal Poly (6-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 41): Right now the win over NAU is Cal Polys lone signature win, but there are no bad losses. One more loss is likely ok, but two would render things dicey, tendency bad side. That means the game with St Mary tomorrow will either get them margin for error, or eliminate the margin.
Eastern Washington: (6-2, WIS: 52, SOS: 99): I am not high on EWU, primarily because of a lackluster OOC that included a loss to a SIM. But if EWU could win out, they would make the playoffs, and wouldn’t be without a shot if there were 1 more loss. However any potentially remaining margin could go out the window, should they lose to PSU tomorrow.
Portland State (5-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 12): Yeah, PSU is only 5-3, but all losses were to really good teams and a win over Northwestern is a good sign still, the defending conference champ has some serious work to do. The SOS is good and will not get much worse, but a fourth loss usually means your SOS needs to be in the top 25 and a fifth means it has to be top 5. So there is not that much margin for error in the remaining schedule, starting with games vs EWU and St Marys.
Texas State (6-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 14): This is one of the better iterations of 6-2, partially thanks to a 5OT win over Youngstown and two more wins over potential playoff participants. TSU could take a big step toward safety should they win vs NAU tomorrow. Lose and we’ll have to discuss margin for error.
Northern Arizona (6-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 31): On the other side of that equation is NAU. This season is already a vast improvement over last season with 3 wins over humans. But yesterdays loss to Cal Poly means is not so deep inside the bubble that they can get comfortable. Should they lose tomorrow, then they might have to win out after that.
Needs help:
Montana State (5-3, WIS: 64, SOS: 89) Being 0-3 vs humans has Montana State on the fringes, where they definitely need to win out, plus the SOS is unlikely to improve. Definitely can’t afford to stumble vs SFA, and maybe should start doing something for its MOVs
Atlantic 10
Should be in:
Maine (7-1, WIS: 1, SOS: 5): This is the kind of schedule that allows you to get to should be in even with a loss super early. Wins over three to 25 teams. Unless Main loses to FAU, Richmond and some SIMs, this is safety.
Work to do:
Richmond: (7-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 52): And this is the kind of sched, where with 7-1 you are nicely on your way towards the playoffs, but quite not safe yet. However, if Richmond can keep serve vs SIMs the next three days that should already go in the right direction, even with a decreasing SOS. Whether they need to beat one of Maine or FAU on top of that is not quite certain.
William & Mary (7-1, WIS: 23 SOS: 80) : WM played 5 humans but lost to the only one with a winning record. That said if they can beat a good Sim in Rhode Island and all the other SIMs left, then even a loss to Villanova should not keep them from dancing.
Villanova (5-3, WIS: 30, SOS:16): This might have been one of the most interesting OOC schedules out there, with 5 human teams of different levels.plus another 2 to start the conference. Goiing 4-3 means Villanova is just a smidgen ahead of the curve. The OT loss to Richmond yesterday has them uncomfortably close to the bubble tough, with WM still coming up. The SOS will not take a huge hit, but a loss would likely put Villanova square on the bubble.
Florida Atlantic (6-2, WIS: 63 SOS: 115): This is what a problematic version of 6-2 looks like. Beat 6 SIMs none of whom has more than 2 wins and lost to another one (who has human recruited talent). The SOS will improve a tiny bit, but FAU probably still needs to win out to make the tournament, maybe even with decent MOVs. Tomorrows game vs Maine thus looms large.
Southern Conference
Not much changed since yesterday, as everybody beat a SIM.
Work to do:
Appalachian State (8-0, WIS: 18, SOS: 104): Was the OOC all that impressive? No. But App State is unblemished and just got past ETSU and avoided Northwestern in cross division. Even two losses to WCU and GSo would probably be ok, so App State is definitely in a good position.
Georgia Southern (7-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 51) Beat FIU and Jacksonville but also took a vicious demolition by EKU. Things are currently looking good, but games vs App State and WCU will be good tests and if GSo loses both, this could get close.
Western Carolina (7-1, WIS: 29 SOS: 96), Going unblemished through a OOC with Grambling being the only decent team on the schedule, didn’t do too much for WCU. The loss to Northwestern on friday means that despite a likely improvement to the SOS WCU still might need to beat a human in its games vs GSU and App State.
Northwestern State (6-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 49): It was a decent OOC, that will likely win in value as the season progresses. Still, with two losses being 2-1 vs teams ranked 30-40 is keeping it close. If Northwestern loses to ETSU, that may be ok, but more than that would be problematic.
A hill to climb:
East Tennessee State (3-5, WIS: 32, SOS: 2): Vhoward had a schedule full of humans in his first season at this rebuild. And I know the WIS ranking looks ok. But not all losses were really that ok, and 5 losses is five losses. And with the SOS likely to drop, ETSU definitely needs to win out to have a shot and then likely also needs a soft bubble.
Needs help:
Nichols State (5-3, WIS: 82, SOS: 113): At this point Nichols is already close ton eliminated, because the SOS is likely not gonna end up being good enough to get in with 3 losses. That is if Nichols were to win out, which is not likely. Tomorrows game vs NWSU is an elimination game.
Pioneer Football League
Well, look at the north. Three teams that are 8-0. Should be a fun division race. After todays loss I took Jacksonville of the board. They might win their division tough, at which point they might make a reappearance.
Should be in:
San Diego (8-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 36): With the SOS likely to hold up, SDU could probably lose three or four times and would still make the tournament. This is as close to a lock as I have at this point in the season.
Drake (8-0, WIS: 10, SOS: 83): That W over EKU is mighty impressive to me. And with only Dayton and SDU remaining, this almost as safe as SDU.
Work to do:
Dayton (8-0, WIS: 24, SOS: 116): After missing the playoffs last season, Dayton is currently doing what they can. That said, with drawing only SIMs in cross division, the SOS looks aweful. It doesn’t help that clear wins over holy cross and EIU are not quite as impressive this season as in the past few seasons. The SOS will improve a bit, but with it starting so low, its not sure that Dayton can afford to lose to both Drake and San Diego.
Needs help:
Charleston Southern (4-4, WIS: 60, SOS: 60): There are three understandable losses, but the one to a SIM puts CSU in trouble. They might win the division, but with the SOS likely to fall, I think CSU really only has the Conference Championship as a viable path.
Ohio Valley Conference
The South took it to the north today. If I were a betting man, I’d say the over under on teams making it in from the OVC is 4
Should be in:
Jacksonville State (7-1. WIS: 4, SOS: 7): Todays win over Iona brought them essentially to safety. Great OOC schedule combined with the OVC gauntlet results in a really nice SOS. Go through this with 6-1 and you are well on your way towards securing a bid.
Eastern Kentucky (6-2, WIS: 5, SOS: 1): Addded another human win today (EIU). Even tough there are 2 losses this is almost made up for by the deservedly number 1 SOS and 3 wins over top 20. With only 2 humans remaining, its hard to imagine this team missing the playoffs.
Work to do:
Tennessee Tech (8-0, WIS: 6 SOS: 72): If you are in the OVC east, then the season is only just starting. And nobody is arriving more prepared than T-Tech. T-tech can afford at least 3 losses, and they will be favored in all games. Would they be in any other conference division they’d already be a ‘should be in’.
Samford (6-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 61): Over 600 yards vs UTM moved the needle in the right direction. Still that earlier loss to a SIM may come to bite Samford. I still feel like Samford might need to upset either EKU tomorrow or Jacksonville on Tuesday.
Iona (5-3, WIS: 40, SOS: 53): The start to the real season was a loss to JSU. Now Iona is a team with still no signature wins and can’t be sure it would get in with another loss, despite and SOS that might improve a bit. It might get real fast with tomorrows game vs EIU.
St. Peters (5-3, WIS: 50, SOS:68): With 3 losses and a middle of the road SOS that is probably the improve, they may potentially be able to afford one more loss, but definitely not more. That loss to a SIM still looks like it could be problematic later on. The next two days will show if St Peters has any shot, with games vs Marist and EIU. I kind of assume a loss to T-tech at the end of the season is highly likely.
Eastern Illinois (4-4, WIS: 42 SOS: 30): EIU didn’t exactly play bad vs EKU but it was still a clear loss. At this point I think with the SOS likely to improve further, EIU could get in if they win out. But if they lose another one, then I don’t like their chances. And it is five games vs humans. Tomorrwos game with Iona could be seen as some sort of elimination game.
Tennessee-Martin (4-4, WIS: 48, SOS: 34): Samford was clearly a season ahead of UTM today. Could they get in with 5 losses? Maybe but in a pinch, I’d bet against it. And with Tech coming up tomorrow it feels like UTM could be in trouble soon, particularly when one remembers that this is the team that gave up over 100 (points, not yards) to EKU a few days ago
Needs help:
Marist (2-6, WIS: 38, SOS:3): Can you believe Marist has the second best WIS ranking in the north? The WIS ranking still looks ok because the SOS is great. But OPs second season was a bit too challenging for the talent level (0-6 vs humans), and unless Marist pulls of loads of Ws, some of which could be described as upsets, this will not move up.
NEC
Well, looks like Lehigh is the big favorite to win the conference.
Should be in:
Lehigh (8-0, WIS: 3, SOS: 27): Improved its resume impressively today with a W over Albany. They are essentially a few wins over Sims away from lock status.
Work to do:
Albany (6-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 9): Well today was a setback, but not really a big one. with the SOS being nice. There is still margin for error, as the SIMs in the division got okish records. Unless they lose to RMU and a SIM this should be fairly safe
Central Connecticut (6-2, WIS: 35: SOS: 67): The WIS ranking took a nice jump today. Could porkbellybobs third season be the one where he finally makes it to the dance? Its possible. But for a win over ETSU, a loss to RMU made up. The SOS is likely to end somewhere between 70 and 90, which would make it a very close call, should CCU lose to Lehigh. Right now my tendency has shifted to slightly optimistic.
Needs help:
Robert Morris (3-5, WIS: 59, SOS: 43): even if RMU were to pull the upset over Albany and win out, the SOS would likely still need some soft bubble to get in. However, ruining CCUs conference start on Friday was a step in the right direction.
