DIAA Bubble Watch, Day 9. Drinking on the rooftop.
So, with day 9 arriving, the number of teams is finally starting to dwindle a bit. And locks are starting to appear.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
SWAC
Should be in:
Alabama A&M (8-1, WIS: 8 SOS: 19), Texas Southern (WIS: 8-1, WIS: 6, SOS: 28): Another win over a SIM will likely move either team to lock status.
Work to do:
Liberty (6-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 63): Kept serve today vs a SIM. The two earlier last second losses still hurt tough. The good news is, that with games vs Southern and Grambling there are nice opportunities to shine. However, they probably could not afford another loss, so this will be tough particularly since Liberty hasn’t beaten Southern in quite some time.
Need help:
Grambling State (5-4, WIS: 40, SOS: 34): Two days ago Grambling was squarely in the running for a playoff spot. While the loss to AAM wasn’t good, it is todays loss to a SIM, that has GSU in real trouble of missing the playoffs. Even winning out might not be enough, but with Southern and Liberty still coming up, hopes are really low right now.
MEAC
A loss to a SIM today eliminated Norfolk State.
Should be in:
Howard (7-2, WIS: 9, SOS: 5): With surprising trouble vs a SIM today (tied at the half). Despite only being 7-2 Howard is already a “should be in”. That is because the SOS is high, and Howard is not likely to lose even one game vs the remaining all SIM schedule much less two. But they’d likely even get in with another loss.
Work to do:
Duquesne (8-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 48): A nice win over LaSalle, that puts Duquesne in the divisions driver’s seat and makes the playoffs look like a decent proabability. If Duquesne also takes care of Norfolk State tomorrow, a feeling of certainty wwill start to settle in.
La Salle (8-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 55): Todays loss to Duquesne was a little bit of a setback. That said, in hypnotoads first season LaSalle has beaten 4 human teams between 35 and 55. LaSalle still has some margin of error. If they can beat eiher Norfolk or Delaware, then the playoffs are a certainty.
Needs help:
Delaware State (6-3, WIS: 65, SOS: 116): Kept alive today vs a SIM. With this kind of SOS 3 losses is usually not going to cut it (and 2 of them to SIM AIs is usually already too much). The SOS will improve from here on out, the results might not.
Ivy League
After todays loss, I took Holy cross off the board
Should be in:
Princeton: (9-0, WIS: 13, SOS: 79): Princeton played a boring OOC (only SIMs), but in conference they already did beat Harvard and Yale. Unless they start losing to SIM AIs, they will make the playoffs.
Work to do:
Yale (8-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 60): The SOS will suffer (and really did today), there are two 1-8 SIMs and a 4-5 Harvard still on the docket. Still Yale can afford probably two more losses, and there is only one human team let, so after missing the playoffs last season, Yale is likely to get back this season. Altough if the SOS keeps droping like today, better not to lose to a SIM.
Needs help:
Harvard (4-5, WIS: 36, SOS: 9): Did something for their record, but their SOS is going down when playing 1-8 SIMs, and Harvard cannot afford that in the long term. In my opinion, the OOC was even thougher than it looks on paper but 1-4 is never good. Combine that with a last minute loss to Princeton, and a bad in division schedule likely lowering that SOS and Harvard is in trouble concerning at-larges and probably needs a soft bubble. Still Harvard is the defending conference champ, and they just might win the conference yet again. After all they were close to beating Princeton earlier this season.
Gateway
Should be safe:
Northern Iowa (7-2, WIS: 14, SOS: 16): Another prove of competence today by babcick (as if we needed it). With only one human left, and that SOS I think NIU is now fairly safe and could really only miss the playoffs if they lose SIMs or lose to FIU, win division anyway and then also lose to YSU. And even such a scenario would not be sure to kick them out.
Work to do:
Savannah State (8-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 62): Well emmm. That was one clear result today. This might still be SSUs best season in some time, but we clearly saw the limits today. SSU has already beaten 3 top 50 teams including Duquesne and has likely one loss margin to the bubble, with FIU left. But can’t afford to mess up vs a SIM.
Youngstown State (6-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 39): This is not a usual situation for a program that ended up in the WIS top ten in 11 of the last 12 seasons. YSU took forgivable losses to Tx State, Jacksonville and a beating from a surging NIU. But right now, Gardener-Webb (5-4) is the only win over a team with a winning record. Now given, that there are no other humans in the division YSU will make the conference championship. Alas the SOS will suffer, the remaining opponents are 7-29. If YSU should lose the conference championship, it might be a very close call.
Florida International (7-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 99): Took care of a SIM today and the WIS rankng moved in the right direction. Hasn’t missed the playoffs in 5 seasons, but getting there is not a given this season. FIU played two good human teams and lost and beat 6 SIMs who killed the SOS with a combined record of 13-60. The SOS may improve slightly, but they definitely have to beat at least one of NIU and SSU and it feels like if FIU loses even one more game they might find themselves just on the bad side of the bubble.
Big Sky
It was a buisy day in the Big sky, with 4 games between human coaches.
Should be in:
St Mary’s (9-0, WIS: 16, SOS: 91): Moves up to ‘should be in’ with todays W over Cal Poly. St Marys is better than its ranking, which is depressed due to playing five bad SIMs in OOC, but wins over TxStat and Montana say good things. The SOS is still not awesome, but with only two humans remaining, S Marys would have to lose to both, and likely to a Sim to miss the playoffs.
Texas State (7-2, WIS: 12, SOS: 7): Not only beat NAU, but even did something for their MOV. As a consequence TSU is fairly safe despite its two losses. The schedule was tough and has some nice wins. And the remaining schedule has only two sims, Montana and an SFA that is 0-8 vs humans.
Work to do:
Cal Poly (6-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 33): Todays loss to Saint Marys proabably eliminated Cal Polys margin for error. Its possible they could get in with a 4th loss, but it doesn’t feel super probable. EWU and PSU on Tuesday and Wednesday look like must wins to me right now.
Portland State (6-3, WIS: 22, SOS: 6): PSU has some losses to really good teams and a wins Northwestern and EWU. Still, the defending conference champ has some serious work to do. The SOS is good and will not get much worse, but a fourth loss usually means your SOS needs to be in the top 25 and a fifth means it has to be top 5. As a consequence, despite todays win there is still not much margin for error in the remaining schedule, and a loss to St Marys tomorrow would make it very close.
Northern Arizona (6-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 29): Took a beating today, but at least the SOS improved. This season is already a vast improvement over last season with 3 wins over humans. Todays results however means that if NAU were to lose another game, they’d need a soft bubble. Winning out is the only way to be sure to make it in, which makes day 13s date with Montana seem all the more important.
Eastern Washington: (6-3, WIS: 64, SOS: 98): I was already not high on EWU, but their offense getting a goos egg at all vs PSU didn’t help. The SOS will likely improve, so if they were to win out, they just may make it in, but after todays loss they have to win out. Tuesdays game vs Cal Poly looms.
Montana State (6-3, WIS: 60, SOS: 100) Came back to beat S,FA and get its first win over a human, which keeps Montana on the board… for the moment. The SOS might move just enough in Montanas favor for them to make it in, but this team definitely still can’t afford another loss. And with NAU and TSU still on the docket, Montana is not likely to make it in.
Atlantic 10
Lock:
Maine (8-1, WIS: 1, SOS: 2): Beating another decent human team and improving the SOS even further. At this point I call Maine completely safe, because even if they lost out, they'd get in with their SOS. They however will instead likely win the division.
Work to do:
William & Mary (8-1, WIS: 21, SOS: 75) : Barely got by one of the better SIM coached teams out there. WM played 5 humans but lost to the only one with a winning record. But with only Villanova and Sims to play, WM probably would have to lose to a SIM to miss the playoffs.
Richmond: (8-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 72): And this is the kind of sched, where with 8-1 you are nicely on your way towards the playoffs, but quite not safe yet. However, if Richmond can keep serve vs SIMs the next two days that should already go in the right direction, even with a decreasing SOS. Whether they need to beat one of Maine or FAU on top of that is not quite certain, but with how fat the SOS is currently decreasing, the answer is probably yes.
William & Mary (8-1, WIS: 21, SOS: 75) : Barely got by one of the better SIM coached teams out there. WM played 5 humans but lost to the only one with a winning record. But with only Villanova and Sims to play, WM probably would have to lose to a SIM to miss the playoffs
Villanova (6-3, WIS: 27, SOS:17): This might have been one of the most interesting OOC schedules out there, with 5 human teams of different levels.plus another 2 to start the conference. Going 4-3 (and 2-0 vs SIMs) means Villanova is a smidgen ahead of the curve. The OT loss to Richmond on Friday has them close to the bubble tough, with WM still coming up. The SOS will not take a huge hit, but another loss would likely put Villanova square on the bubble. In that sense tomorrows game is highly important to bubble watchers.
Needs help:
Florida Atlantic (6-3, WIS: 57 SOS: 107): In the end, it will probably not be todays loss that costs FAU the playoffs, but the one to SIM Rhode Island yesterday. The SOS will improve a tiny bit, but FAU definitely needs to win out, and also needs help from the bubble and should urgently do something for its MOVs.
Southern Conference
Todays loss took Nichols State off the board.
Should be in:
Georgia Southern (7-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 51) Took it to a SIM today. Previously Beat FIU and Jacksonville. It sure looks like Georgia Southern will not miss the playoffs unless they lose to a SIM in the next two days.
Work to do:
Appalachian State (9-0, WIS: 24, SOS: 117): Most other unbeaten teams are in the 'should be in' category by now, but Appalachian State hasn't done enough for that. Still, App State is unblemished . Even two losses to WCU and GSo would probably be ok, so App State is definitely in a good position.
Western Carolina (8-1, WIS: 28 SOS: 104), Going unblemished through a OOC with Grambling being the only decent team on the schedule, didn’t do too much for WCU. The loss to Northwestern on Thursday means that despite a likely improvement to the SOS WCU still might need to beat at least one human in its games vs GSU and App State. Tuesdays game will be observed by the bubble watch.
Northwestern State (7-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 44): It was a decent OOC, that will likely win in value as the season progresses. Still, with two losses being 2-1 vs teams ranked 30-40 is keeping it close. If Northwestern loses to ETSU, that may be ok, but more than that would be problematic.
East Tennessee State (4-5, WIS: 35, SOS: 4): That was uncomfortably close vs SIM MSU today and ETSU lost spots on the ranking. Not all losses were really that ok, and 5 losses is five losses. And with the SOS likely to drop, ETSU definitely needs to win out to have a shot and then likely also needs a softish bubble. Tomorrows game vs Northwestern is kind of an elimination game, but also a chaance to prove ETSU belongs after all.
Pioneer Football League
The season still hasn't really started in the PFL north, where three teams are 9-0. But that's about to change.
Lock:
San Diego (9-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 50): With the SOS likely to hold up or improve, Sthere is no way SDU can lose enough to miss the playoffs. However winning the conference will be a decent challenge.
Should be in:
Drake (9-0, WIS: 10, SOS: 89): That W over EKU is still mighty impressive to me. And with only Dayton and SDU remaining, this almost as safe as SDU. A win over Dayton tomorrow would move Drake to lock Status.
Work to do:
Dayton (9-0, WIS: 26, SOS: 120): After missing the playoffs last season, Dayton is currently doing what they can. That said, with drawing only SIMs in cross division, the SOS looks aweful...as in the worst in all off DIAA. It doesn’t help that clear wins over holy cross and EIU are not quite as impressive this season as in the past few seasons. The SOS will improve a bit, but with it starting so low, its not sure that Dayton can afford to lose to both Drake and San Diego. And neither game is easy. Tomorrow thus represents a huge opportunity as well as a big risk to move toward the bubble
Needs help:
Charleston Southern (5-4, WIS: 55, SOS: 70): There are three understandable losses, but the one to a SIM puts CSU in trouble. They might win the division, but with the SOS likely to remain outside the 50ies, I think CSU really only has the Conference Championship as a viable path.
Ohio Valley Conference
Its never boring in the OVC. That said, chalk won all its games today.
Lock:
Eastern Kentucky (7-2, WIS: 5, SOS: 1): And added another W over a human. Could a team get in with 6 losses? Well with EKUs schedule it probably could. But with 3 SIms remaining, EKU will not test that theory.
Should be in:
Jacksonville State (8-1. WIS: 4, SOS: 10): Beat a SIM today. Great OOC schedule combined with the OVC gauntlet results in a really nice SOS. Theres still two human games left (not least the one with EKU), but JSU is closer to a lock than to having work to do.
Tennessee Tech (9-0, WIS: 7 SOS: 67): It was a close affair with UTM today, but it was another W for T-Tech, who is still unbelmished. The SOS is bound to improve, and unless T-Tech loses all 4 games, I don't see them missing the playoffs.
Work to do:
Samford (6-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 41): The D gave up 700 yards today. Still that earlier loss to a SIM may come to bite Samford. At this point I feel like Samford might need to upset Jacksonville on Tuesday. The way JSU is playing this season, that is a big ask.
Eastern Illinois (5-4, WIS: 41 SOS: 21). All of a sudden has two wins over top 45 teams, and at this point I think with the SOS likely to improve further, EIU could get in if they win out. Still, if they lose another one, then I don’t like their chances. And it is still four games vs humans. Definitely need to beat St Peters and Marist to start the week.
Iona (5-4, WIS: 44, SOS: 57): Lost on a missed 57 yard field goal attempt as time expired today. If Iona had any margin of error left, then it is gone now. The SOS will improve but even if Iona wins out, its not qite sure that this would be enough. And winning out... well lets just say the next two hurdels are UTM and T-tech.
Needs help:
Tennessee-Martin (4-5, WIS: 45, SOS: 20): It was a really valiant effort vs T-Tech today, but it was a loss nontheless. Could they get in with 5 losses? Maybe but in a pinch, I’d bet against it. Feels like the next four games are all elimination games. Todays close result could be seen as encouraging tough.
St. Peters (5-4, WIS: 53, SOS:69): Got more yards, but lost to Marist. That is a painful loss, as St Peteres was not having that much margin for error. The earlier loss to a SIM still looks like it could be problematic later on. At this point in order to get back into it, SPC really needs to beat EIU tomorrow and still has T-Tech looming to close the season.
Marist (3-6, WIS: 38, SOS:3): Despite having the worst record Marist still has the second best WIS ranking in the north! And after 6 straight losses, including one to a SIm, Marist is now on a 3-win winstreak and got its first win over a human. The WIS ranking still looks ok because the SOS is great. Still, with 6 losses the SOS needs to remain stellar and Marist can simply not afford any other stumbles. In other words, I don't care that they are playing T-Tech and its much better talent tomorrow, Marist needs to win.
NEC
Robert Morris fell of the board with its loass to Sacred Heart today.
Lock:
Lehigh (9-0, WIS: 3, SOS: 47): Beating a SIM today and is simply running out of opportunities to mess up.
Should be in:
Albany (7-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 13):WellBeat aSIM today, which in Albanys situation is plenty good enough. There is lots of margin for error, as the SIMs in the division got okish records.
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (7-2, WIS: 33: SOS: 77): Inching closer to the top 32. Could porkbellybobs third season be the one where he finally makes it to the dance? Its possible. The SOS is likely to end somewhere between 70 and 90 (there will be a bad hit in the last two games), which would make it a very close call, should CCU lose to Lehigh.
