Season 140 Big12 Preview, Part 2

Included in this episode are the elite of the Big12 …and Texas A&M, too. These are the four B12 teams with the highest final season ranking in 139. Coming up:

Texas A&M, last season (11-3) ranked #22 Oklahoma, last season (11-3) ranked #14 Texas, last season (13-2) ranked #9 Nebraksa, last season (15-0) ranked #1

TEXAS A&M Aggies - Big12 South Head Coach: arcadecowboy (237 - 110); Job status: Very Secure Last Season’s Record: 11-3 (6-2) WIS Rank: #22 Last Bowl Appearance: s139, Won the Sun Bowl Program Overview: Coach arcadecowboy enters his 8th season in College Station in fairly good position. The Aggies belong on the same tier as Colorado and Missouri, those teams listed in the first part of the Big12 Preview, and could easily wind up ranked ahead or behind those teams at end of year. Despite some big (and close) wins for the program over elites over the last few seasons, the Aggies still have yet to break through to a top 10 finish. Most importantly for the boosters, Coach AC has yet to notch a win over the 800 lb gorilla in the state, UT. Offense: Trips. ProSet. Iform. 703 pass attempts to 465 rushes. The Aggies lost their top QB from 139, but have a very good Sr* QB ready to step in. The top WR was lost as well, but four return, including two very talented Jrs, and last year’s starting TE. There likely will be no drop in the passing game, and all of their RBs return, including two top 5 RB recruits from s138 now entering their third season. Three Aggies will need to replace 3 starters on the OL, but appear to be in good shape with replacements ready to step up. Defense: 3-4. Nick. 53.6% allowed passing, 3.2 ypc rushing. The Aggies lost 2 very good starters at DL, 1 at LB, and 3 at DB. There is strong talent to step in at DL, though young. 3 LBs were lost, though only 1 a starter. The biggest question may be DB, which will be led by a very strong Jr DB. There is good depth to step up, but not as talented or experienced as last season’s. Overall, the defense will be younger this season. There are some studs on the defense, but will likely see a step back in performance. Verdict: A little stronger on offense, a little weaker on defense. The Aggies have 3 elites on their schedule, and if prior seasons are any indication, A&M will likely give a good game to two of them, and get blown out by the third. On the surface, this doesn’t look like the season A&M finally breaks through. Five of their opponents will have more talent on the roster, with a sixth being about the same. The scheduler may have bitten off a little more than the Aggies can chew, but only the sim will tell. Projected record: 9-4 Big Game: Week 12 vs Texas. Any number of games look like they’ll be great contests, but this is the one that matters most to the fan base, and Coach AC has the Aggies talent up to a level where those fans expect more than just a good game. There’s even a chance A&M could be 5-6 coming into this game, needing a win to sniff at a bowl. UT will not be the best opponent to see at that time, but there’s no point where UT is the best opponent to see. Recruiting: 15 scholarships Coach AC will tell you this season’s recruiting was a minor bust. With 15 scholarships to rival UT’s 7, the two programs found themselves battling for four, and coach AC was feeling confident about his ability to persuade all four to pack their bags for College Station. However, the #9 RB and #12 LB went from yellow to signing with UT on the first cycle of signings. The Aggies went to Georgia and found the #11 WR still agonizing over college choice, and eventually the two remaining battles finally resolved with the #9 QB and #17 DB signing with A&M. It won’t be a bad class, but with a huge cash lead, A&M’s coach expected better in-state results. However, all scholarships were filled, and their signees include some talented players, adding the #7 WR along with the #11, and a few other very good to decent players.

OKLAHOMA Sooners - Big12 South Head Coach: blitziscomin (535 - 181, 1 NC) Last Season’s Record: 11-3 (6-2), #14 Last Bowl Appearance: s139, won the Gator Bowl Program Overview: It’s been 139 seasons since the Oklahoma Sooners won the first Wilkinson National Championship (over USC). 16 title game appearances and 9 national championships later for the Sooners, coach Blitziscomin enters his 33rd season at the helm, passing sooners_81 for the longest tenured OU coach, with the most OU wins total in candy-from-a-baby distance as well. Though the heyday of the program was in the rough and early days of GD, when the games were 5 yards and a cloud of dust, Coach Blitz has elevated the program back to a place where preseason NC pundits regularly talk about the Sooners as much as any other program. And s140 will be no exception. Offense: ProSet s139: 761 pass attempts to 441 rushes. The Sooners lose quite a few playmakers from last season, including their top QB, top 2 WRs, top 2 TEs, and one of last season’s starting RBs. Redshirt Jr QB Dailey is expected to take over the reins of the offense, and the offense returns one of the best RBs in the game in Sr* RB Paul Washington (2,143 yds, 34 TDs; 79r 954 yds, 3 TDs). A point of concern for a pass first offense — at least one looking for a NC — would have to be returning only 3 WRs, two being young. The offense will not lack for talent, but lower than ideal formation IQ for the younger players will be a concern in some of the bigger games, where small factors can swing the needle one way or the other. Defense: 3-4 41% allowed passing, 3.0 ypc. An absolutely stingy defense last season, but like the offense, this defense loses some impact playmakers, including two of the nation’s best DL, all-American LB Alexander, and all-American DB Johnson. There is talent ready to slide into place and reload, and though talent will not be an issue, youth will be a concern for the defense as well. However, the Sooners will still have 2 of top DBs in the nation, with plenty of talent to back those up, and this defense will continue to be a brick wall for most offenses. Verdict: s139 was a disappointing one for coach Blitz, who had his eyes on a NC, with the nation’s top rated collection of talent to back him up. Not for many programs is a #14 finish, 11 wins, and a Gator Bowl win a disappointment, but OU is one of them. Despite the talent dip (and it’s not much of a dip), I don’t expect worse for s140, though the NC looks a little further away than it did last season. Predicted record: 11-2 Big Game: They face Penn State in week 3, but even with a loss they could still be in NC contention by the time they face Texas in week 11. That game should determine who plays in the CC game from the South division. Expect both teams to still look like NC contenders when they meet. UT won last season’s, so the Sooners will be looking for payback. Recruiting: 18 scholarships OU seemed to meet little to no resistance on the recruiting trail, signing all 18, including: 4 star players at DB, DL, OL, RB; Several 3 star players, and a 5 star LB, the best in the nation. The Sooners addressed any upcoming roster needs, and Coach Blitz should feel content and happy, patting his recruiting belly as he chuckles at other team’s struggles. TEXAS Longhorns - Big12 South Head Coach: bkdries (1362-258, 12 NCs); Job Status: Very Secure Last Season’s Record: 13-2 (8-1) WIS Rank: #9 Last Bowl Appearance: s139, Lost the Sugar Bowl Program Overview: Coach BK enters his 59th season at UT with a 753-95 record, including 30 Big12 championships and 10 national championships. UT is the type of program that could still reel off a string of silver trophies at any time, though the last NC was 16 seasons ago, when UT completed a run of 10 seasons that saw 9 Big12 Championships and 7 National Championships. UT still has one of the top programs in the game, and is perennially capable of getting back to the big game. Offense: ProSet s139: 869 passing plays, 401 rushing plays. Completed 61% of passes, and got 6.3 ypc rushing. UT lost their top QB, RB and WR to graduation, but as usual, has excellent talent ready to step up. The Longhorns will be relying on Jr* Gerald Richardson, who may not rate as high as last season’s starter, but has incredibly high GI at 88, and is likely to make few mistakes. At WR 4 players return: only 1 senior, but there is plenty of talent. 158 of last seasons passes targeted their TEs, and they return both of last year’s TEs as seniors. A trio of talented backs step up to replace last season’s starter, and the Horns return 4 of last season’s OL. Overall, there’s a slight dip in ability at QB, but it likely won’t even be noticed. This year’s offense returns 7 starters, and will be even stronger than last season’s. Defense: 3-4, 4-4, Dime s139: Held opponents to 51.4% completions, and 2.9 ypc No players lost on the line, 1 starting LB graduated, and 1 DB graduated, not a starter. UT returns 10 starters. Nuff said. Verdict: In short: Better than last season. 7 sims on the schedule means a mostly boring season for Coach BK. When it comes to national championship aspirations, the poor SoS will hurt. Admittedly, getting teams to agree to non-conference matchups when you’re the winningest coach at the winningest program in Wilk history can be a challenge. But with so many sim opponents, it’s not difficult to imagine a scenario where an undefeated Texas beats an undefeated Nebraska in the Big12 championship, …and Nebraska still gets the NC bid. Predicted record: 13-0 Big Game: Week 11 vs Oklahoma. While coach Blitz is 10-31 vs coach BK, about 9 of those came while coach Blitz was at Texas Tech. In the 15 seasons since 124, coach Blitz has made the CC 9 times. That doesn’t necessarily mean OU won their matchup (historical records are not available), but probably. Odds are UT will be 10-0 coming into this game, and the result will determine who goes to the Big12 championship game. UT won the game last season, and then lost to Nebraska in the championship game. This could go either way, but odds are in UT’s favor. Recruiting: 7 scholarships Signed the #9 RB and 4 other good players, but a small class and a huge OU class to the north limited UT’s reach. The Longhorns locked in 4 battles with (one-sided) rival A&M, and despite a 8 scholarship disadvantage still took two of those players. If past seasons are any indication, UT’s coach doesn’t do backups in recruiting, so if/when they take two walk-ons, there is a good chance this class will be cut down to 5 players, and next season’s class will jump from 17 scholarships to 19, which will have implications for A&M, OU, and perhaps even a few teams further afield. Nebraska Cornhuskers - Big12 North Head Coach: jasonfreeman (379-66, 2 NCs) Last Season’s Record: 15-0 (9-0) Last Bowl Appearance: s139, won the National Championship Program Overview: The last time the Huskers lost a game was in s137 (They went 15-0 in s138, but missed out on the NC game). That’s at least 32 straight wins, though probably a few more. After coach Jasonfreeman’s incredible success at Cal (11 seasons, 7 CCs, 1 NC, 7 top 10 finishes), this is the success prognosticated when he took over the big red machine. The question will now be if he can sustain that level of success, as other coaches have also been king of the mountain for a period of time, only to find themselves looking up at another program and scrambling again. Offense: ProSet. s139: 742 pass plays to 643 run plays. The Huskers return their top rated passer, who accounted for about 1/3 of last season’s passes, and is the second best in the nation this season according to Guess (after Temple’s QB Howard). They lose one of the game’s top RBs, but still have one of the game’s most dangerous stables of RBs, led by Glen Watts (179 r, 1194 yds, 16 TD; 87 rec, 1263 yds, 16 TD), one of the best in Wilkinson. They do lose 3 of their top OL, and those will be big shoes to fill by younger players. Overall though, there is still plenty of firepower here to blow away most defenses. Defense: 3-4. 48.6% passes allowed; 2.3 ypc This is how many TDs the Huskers defense have given up the last four seasons: s136: 35 s137: 30 s138: 20 s139: 15 Like a boa constrictor squeezing it’s prey. And last season’s output is crazy. 15 TDs in 15 games. That isn’t quite as few as OU’s s127 when the Sooners only gave up 8, but if this trend continues, we’ll get there in a season or two. In s139, Nebraska finally passed OU as the conference’s stingiest scoring defense. If you check their roster from 139, ( Huskers Roaster ) you’ll see solid talent, excellent talent, even. But only one defensive player in the top 10 of their position. Three in the top 25 of their position. I could talk about who they lost, and who will have to step up, but a quick scan of returning talent tells me they’ll be just fine. But I don’t know about the rest of us. Verdict: I think we’re still seeing Nebraska in it’s stride under coach J-free. He won’t stay on top of the hill forever, but there’s no reason his Huskers can’t stay on top of the hill this season. Big Game: Week 2, the Huskers take on USC in a national championship game rematch. There are other tough games on the schedule, including LSU in week 5, but USC has reached the NC game in the last 3 seasons (they won it in s138). A win here would keep the Huskers heels firmly on top of the Wilkinson hill, and could afford them even the ugly luxury of a misstep against LSU, Missouri, or Colorado. Recruiting: 14 scholarships There are some clear top players in this class, with the #6 QB recruit and #4 LB headed to Lincoln, but the rest look relatively unremarkable for a defending national champion. That said, it can be difficult to judge coach Freeman’s recruiting classes, as historically he has had an excellent eye for scouting potential and developing unremarkable players into studs. An example of that would be signing RB Terry Palacios out of Florida. The RB was rated as far down as #24 at his position, but has incredible work ethic (76) and looks primed for growth. It would not be surprising to see Palacios reach the top of his class by his upperclassman seasons. That’s the highest WE player he’s signed, but there are several players which fit a similar mold, and it’s likely the true quality of this class will show in a few seasons. BIG12 WRAP UP On the surface it looks like business as usual in the Big 12: the expected title game contenders are all elites (Nebraska vs UT or OU), but as late, Missouri, Colorado and A&M have all demonstrated the capacity to upset the apple cart, notching a few wins vs the elites, with Missouri and Colorado even taking a turn with the Big12 title trophy. As of now, the crown for all of Wilk sits firmly on the head of Herbie Husker, with all the mascots of Wilk jumping to take a swipe. Thanks for reading, and GL to all in season 140. -AC