Season 140 Big 12 Preview, Part 1

Teams are listed in order of last season’s final rank, starting at lowest rank and finishing with the national champ Nebraska. I won't spend much/any time talking about the Big12 as a conference, as there's enough material below.

In this episode: Oklahoma State: chainsaw4, last season (3-10) #80 Texas Tech: slicknick777, last season (7-6) #66 Missouri: hypnotoad, last season (11-3) #35 Colorado: cjsweat, last season (9-5) #23

OKLAHOMA STATE Cowboys - Big12 South Head Coach: chainsaw4 (1241-479); Job Status: Secure Last Season’s Record:3-10 (2-6) WIS Rank: #80 Last Bowl Appearance: s135, Won the Las Vegas Bowl Program Overview: Coach chainsaw4 enters his 2nd season of his 3rd tenure at OSU, still in rebuild mode. He formerly coached the Cowboy seasons 76-81 and 85-124, and is the all time winningest coach in Cowboy history by a long shot with 446 OSU wins. His job is secure, but needs wins and bowl appearances to keep it that way. His recruit class last season (with no bowl money) was 51st, and that was added to a horrible Sim class (now juniors) and a middling senior class left over from the previous coach. The goal is a bowl, to keep the fickle OSU AD at bay. Offense: Trips. s139: 649 pass attempts and 388 rushes. Starting QB Frank Wilson (Jr*) returns after a typical underclassman season of too many INTs (301/608, 3,477, 16 TDs, 38 Ints). He’s very mobile and has good ratings, and should start to show upperclass improvement: though last season he was sacked 47 times, threw the ball away 37, scrambled 31, so he’ll need his protection to improve as well if the offense is going to make anything happen. Speaking of which, the returning OL is young (1 sr, 1 jr, 4 so), so a challenge awaits. Another downside is most of the WR corp aren’t up to the level of Big12 competition, though the Cowboys do return their top WR David Rose. Top RB Steven Donovan (Jr*) returns as well. We’ll see an improved offense, but the Cowboys will struggle against strong defenses if they can’t get the ball off quickly on pass plays. Defense: 4-3, Nick, Dime. Last season the defense allowed 60.1% completion for passes, and gave up 5.1 yds per rush. They lost 3 starters from the DL and 2 from the DBs, including their two strongest defenders from last season. They also cut 2 LBs (who should be easily replaced by recruits). It’s unlikely this will be a much improved defense this season, at least as far as where talent meets experience. The DBs will likely be shredded by the better pass teams. Verdict: The Cowboys won’t be turning the corner this soon in Coach Chainsaw’s third tenure in Stillwater. In his defense, it’s really too soon to expect miracles. Four sims are on the schedule, so if OSU hopes to make a bowl game, they’ll need to win against three human teams. NC State is still in a rebuild, and Texas Tech as well. All other opponents are helming solidly built teams. The Cowboys should improve on 3 wins, but a bowl game is still out of reach. Projected record: 5-8 Big Game: Week 11 vs Texas Tech. There is no “must win” for Coach Chainsaw this season, not yet, but this should be the most interesting game on the schedule. Tech’s coach is “In Jeopardy”, and if he gets a few key wins en route to this matchup will still be fighting for his job. If that’s the case, there will be interesting stakes in this game. Recruiting: 16 scholarships to fill. Fist thing noticed on looking is there is just 1 DB commit, a one star signing out of Kansas, which is not going to help an already stretched defensive backfield very much. Of the rest, most will be overmatched by the studs signed by the better players out there, but could develop into solid contributors. Coach C appeared to be hindered by a recruiting grudge match against Tulsa for two WRs, which is ongoing with 12 cycles to go in recruiting. At least one of these were undecided first cycle, perhaps both. If substantial resources went into battling for one or both of these, this would go a long way to explaining the lack of any impact players being signed. Coach C needs to avoid getting dragged down in order to bring the Cowboys back up. TEXAS TECH Red Raiders - Big12 South Head Coach: slicknick777 (185 - 135); Job status: In Jeopardy Last Season’s Record: 7-6 (3-5) WIS Rank: #66 Last Bowl Appearance: s108, Won the Silicon Valley Bowl Program Overview: In s137, coach slicknick777 took over a program that had been sim for nearly 30 seasons, since coach blitziscomin left the program for Oklahoma in s109. Coach Slick has shown steady improvement in the win total, but has yet to gain a bowl bid, or finish ranked higher than #66, and the AD is longing for the days of finishing ranked #90 under coach SimAI. After a mere three seasons, coach Slick’s job is “In Jeopardy” and he could get the boot. Already there are a handful of coaches that would be interested in building on the foundation Slick has set. Offense: I-form & Trips. s139: 638 pass plays to 398 rushes. The Raiders had favored the run in s137 and 138, but flipped to the pass last season. The starting QB (Metcalf) returns as a senior, and talent-wise is considered one of the top QBs in the nation. He’ll need his supporting cast to step up, however, as Metcalf was harassed, hurried, and intercepted 18 times last season. Fortunately for the Red Raiders and Metcalf, they return every single starter from last season, and that experience should pay off with a little extra horsepower. Defense: 3-4, 4-4, & Nick. The defense lost four players to graduation, but no studs. The bigger issue will be depth, as the Raiders return 4 DL, 5 LB, and 5 DBs. Their offense will be the defense’s best ally or worst enemy during the season, depending on whether they can get the defense enough time to rest up. Another thing to watch will be the rush defense. The Raiders gave up an average of 4.5 yds per rush last season. Though this may have been skewed by the B12 elites running roughshod, the defense will need to tighten up. Verdict: The Raiders schedule includes nine human opponents. If the Raiders win every game against Sims, they’ll need at least 3 wins against humans to get to a bowl, and there they’ll need to win for coach Slick to save his job. Of those nine humans, three are elites: Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma. One of the remaining six is Memphis, coming off an undefeated season and a #4 finish. Of the remaining teams, Temple, Missouri, and Texas A&M field top 25 talent consistently. Oklahoma State is a rebuild, and UNLV is struggling under the Pac10 shadow to bring talent to Vegas. Projected Record: 6-7 Big Game: Week 4, verses Memphis.According to our preseason yatzr based analysis of returning rosters, UNLV is ranked #99, Oklahoma State #69, Memphis #42, and Tech #39. The other six human rosters are #20 or better. On paper, Memphis looks like the best bet for that much needed third win against a human opponent. The Tigers impressively went 15-0 last season and finished #4, beating a very solid BCS bowl opponent, but they lost a whopping 15 starters (7 on offense, 8 on defense), and the replacement talent is a notch below. Memphis still has talent, and could even go undefeated into bowls, but they aren’t going to be as good as s139 Memphis. Tech plays a strong Temple team in Week 2. If they’re 2-2 after Memphis in Week 4, Coach Slick will expect his walking papers, and at there’s at least one coach out there who will be getting his paperwork ready to take over. Recruiting: 10 scholarships Coach Slick was either keeping a low profile or absentee for most of early recruiting. As a result, some good players from west Texas were claimed by programs from 180+, and as recruiting winds down, looks to take on 4 or 5 walk-ons. Tech has commits from three players who might fall in the two star range, in addition to the #4 TE in the nation. Though some of these players might see the field, none look like the kind of impact player that could help a coach fighting to save his job. Some good players slipped past, though if coach Slick doesn’t beat projections, it will only matter for the next coach.

MISSOURI Tigers - Big12 North Head Coach: hypnotoad (153-43); Job status: In Jeopardy Last Season’s Record: 11-3 (6-2), #35 Last Bowl Appearance: s139, Lost the Emerald Bowl Program Overview: Unbelievably, Coach Hypnotoad’s job is “In Jeopardy.” He enters his 7th season as Missouri’s head coach, with a 57-28 overall record for the Tigers. That includes 5 bowl appearances in 6 seasons, and 1 CC. For perspective, in 140 seasons, Missouri has claimed 3 Big12 championships. That means Coach Hypnotoad is responsible for 1/3 of Missouri’s CCs. Missouri is 26th in all-time wins for Wilkinson programs, having the good fortune of being consistently human coached, but none of those coaches have been able to consistently stay in the top 25. Though Coach Hypnotoad has thus far shared this struggle, he has done an incredible job of elevating the program’s talent levels, bringing the Tigers up to it’s highest Guess roster rankings in the history of the program. Most notably the top recruited QBs in both s136 and s138. It would be a shame to see Coach H fired. Offense: Trips, Notre Dame Box. s139: 539 pass attempts, 631 rushes. The offense returns one of the game’s best QBs in Sr* Broussard (306/516, 3537 yds, 27 TD, 3 Int), with a highly talented backup in So* QB Gibson. Broussard is highly mobile and difficult to pin down by opposing defenses, especially with a strong OL protecting him. Mizzou was a run-first team last season, though historically, Coach H has relied more heavily on the pass. It will be interesting to see if the needle heads back that direction. One reason it may not, despite having such talent under center, is the Tigers return only 3 WRs, and none of them stand out as game breakers. If they do pass more, expect a large share of the increase to go to the RBs. The Tigers return 3 very good RBs, despite losing two very strong seniors to graduation, and the OL remains solid. Defense: 4-3, 4-4, Nick. s 139: 47.7% passing against, 3.3 ypc given up. The Tigers lose 2 starters on the D-line, and 3 of their top 4 DBs. There is talent to step up and fill those shoes, but youth will mean a little more vulnerability. Of note, the top four LBs all return, including one of the nation’s best with So* LB Miller. The no.2 rated LB of the 138 recruit class, he hasn’t seen much of the field yet, but that will no doubt change in 140. Verdict: Missouri hasn’t lost a lot, though the lack of WR depth could hurt in big games, especially against Nebraska. It’s saying a lot about Coach Hypnotoad that a game against (arguably) the best team in Wilkinson (Nebraska is on a 32+ game win streak) is a possible upset win for Missouri. He’s done a great job with this program, and if the Tigers are lucky, he gets to keep doing it. Looking at the schedule, 12-1 isn’t a ridiculous expectation, though there will be a few tough games in there. My prediction is a top 25 finish and Coach H stays (if he wants to). Projected record: 11-2 Big Game: Week 13 vs Colorado. If Missouri makes it past all the teams it is supposed to, and loses to the one team it is supposed to (Nebraska), they’ll head into the final regular season game 11-1. Which sounds great, but there is a very real chance that their schedule will hurt their WiS ranking — only two teams they’ll play finished in the top 25 last season. A win here will likely solidify the Tigers in the top 25. A loss puts them at risk of repeating last season: 11 wins, a bowl loss, and a thirty-something ranking due to weak SoS. If that happens, Missouri’s loss will be another program’s gain (hoping coach hypnotoad wouldn’t be too jaded to keep coaching). Recruiting: 13 scholarships Missouri has signed 9 recruits at press time, with no others considering. Among those signed include four 3 star recruits: at DB, OL, QB and WR. The Tigers were jockeying late for the #4 LB in the nation with division rival Nebraska, which would have been a big boost for the Tigers, and missing out has to hurt. There are some good players headed to Columbia, but some holes as well. For a run first team, no RB has been signed, which could mean a heavy workload for the 3 returning, and difficulty down the road. COLORADO Buffaloes - Big12 North Head Coach: cjsweat (602 - 235, 1 NC); Job status: Very Secure Last Season’s Record: 9-5 (5-3) WIS Rank: #23: Last Bowl Appearance: s139, Lost the Capital One Bowl Program Overview: Coach cjsweat is rock solid in the Centennial State entering his sixth year. In the previous five, he’s led the Buffs to three top 10 finishes, one conference championship, and only one finish outside the top 25 (s137 at #26). It’s true coach CJ took over a program that was running well, having served as a launching pad for the previous two coaches to elite jobs (lyonzfan37 to Michigan, badaxe to Florida State), but he’s taken the program, made it his own, and added to the success. The Buffaloes remain a program elites can’t overlook. Offense: ProSet. s139: 655 pass attempts and 583 rushes Favored the pass slightly in 139, though the ratio has varied wildly from season to season (s137 it was 1223:126, s138 it was 462:705). The Buffaloes don’t lose much at QB, and may in fact improve with the passing of the torch to Jr* QB Dominguez. At RB, they return one of the best backs in Wilkinson with Sr Barry Green and have a solid no.2 in Sr* Robert King. They return all their WRs and TEs, and though they lost 3 OL to graduation, they have relative talent to step in. In short, the Buffalo offense should see some improvement this season. Defense: 3-4. s139: Allowed 48.7% passes, 3.9 ypc. The Buffaloes lost their top 2 DL, top 2 LB, and top DB, and among those were a few studs who won’t be easily replaced. The defense will still be solid, just not as good as s139. A bright point will be three senior DBs to provide leadership and remain tough against the pass, but teams with strong ground games will present a challenge to a defense with at least two sophomores starting. Verdict: Colorado’s schedule is tough enough that if they finish the season 9-5 again, they’ll likely still finish in the top 25 as well. Offensively, they’ll be a little stronger; Defensively, they’ll be a little weaker. Projected record: 9-4 Big Game: Week 13 vs Missouri. There are six big games on the Buffaloes schedule: 3 against the B12 elites, and 3 against other top25 caliber teams. The BC and A&M games will be great matchups, but the Missouri game could carry more drama, as not only will both teams will be jockeying for better bowl position, but Missouri Coach hypnotoad may be jockeying for a job saving outcome. Recruiting: 11 scholarships BYU lost it’s human class, and Coach CJ stepped right in, signing the 4 best from Utah, and wrapped up his class relatively early, and it should be one of the best in the country when the Guess reports come out. Included are the #7 DB in the nation, the #19 DB, the #12 DL, #9 WR, #23 OL, and the #6, #7, #8 LBs. That’s 8 of 11 signees in the top 25 at their position, with the remaining three looking like solid contributors as well. The downsides are gaps at certain positions means the Buffaloes will have depth/youth challenges on offense in the future, most notably at RB, WR and OL next season, and at QB in three seasons. Good thing they are going to have an extremely strong defense at that time. Big12 Preview, Part 2 will be coming either late this same day, or early Wednesday. Including: Texas A&M, last season (11-3) ranked #22 Oklahoma, last season (11-3) ranked #14 Texas, last season (13-2) ranked #9 Nebraksa, last season (15-0) ranked #1 Stay tuned, and thanks for reading. -AC