Recruiting Maze
One of my favorite hobbies is playing poker. I was an online poker junky back in the heyday and I have started going to Vegas every June for the WSOP. Playing tournament poker and recruiting have a lot of similarities. Both of them end each game with all of the chips/scholarships off of the table and there are very clear winners and losers. Recruiting has the single largest influence turning a program into a monster program.
This article is written mainly for the coach that has a top 20-30 D1A program in a world but wants more. I am hoping this can be some fuel for you to build a Level 5 Bowl program.
Before Recruiting Season Begins
(1) Identify Recruiting needs on my roster. Here is an area I think several coaches struggle with in heavily populated worlds. Don't spend money on roster spots that aren't high priority unless you have surplus recruiting money. Identify these areas before recruiting ever starts.
Example: If I know my roster has 2 QBs: 1 Jr* stud and 1 Fr* stud then realistically my QB recruiting needs are for his Sr* season as a starter (if the recruit's ratings are going to lag the Fr* for the next few seasons). I also know that if I can't find a high quality QB recruit that is only needed for his Sr* season then I will have to recruit a QB next season that will be a stud his Jr* and Sr* season. I'm not going to ruin my class battling for a recruit that will only play for one season. (If you are playing All Pass offense obviously you need two upperclassemen redshirted QBs)
I go through my entire roster to determine my strengths in my Fr* and So players. I want to make sure that I recruit great players at positions that brought in weak recruits last season. So if I am running Pro Set and 3-4 defense and I have balanced classes I will have a recruiting class that looks something like: QB, RB, WR, 2 x OL, DL, 2 x LB, 2 x DB, every season with 2 spots for TE/K/P/ another DL/ sim position/rebalance position. If last season brought in stud QB, WR, LB, DB, but a less than average RB, LB#2, and DB#2, I will need to get a RB that can be a Jr* and Sr* starter as well as making sure I have solid two year starters at LB and DB. I will spend big money on a RB before I spend money on a QB for this season.
Don't ruin your recruit class battling for recruits with sexy ratings that are only going to play a lot for one season unless you have the cash, do so!
(2) Look to see how many scholarships each conference coach will have (Standings-> Team Rankings -> Seniors ). I will understand what advantage/disadvantage I have against my close human coached opponents and then search on WIS recruits for my position needs. As I search I check the human coached team rosters to make sure I understand what their needs are. If five close teams need QBs and there are two decent QB recruits everyone will fight for I won't spend a dollar on close QBs on the first cycle.
The main purpose of me searching through recruits while we are still in the previous season is to identify my must-have recruits, which recruits will be the most expensive, and which recruits can be potential bargains.
When we get "The Most Wonderful Time of Year" email I fire up yatzr's tool and download this season's recruits. I make sure that I haven't missed any recruit from my WIS searches in the previous season. I also spend some time looking at all of the undecided recruits to determine which ones I want to pursue at bargain prices - and track them to see which coaches are saving their cash by recruiting undecideds.
First Cycle Spending
(1) Let's start with what not to do - Don't spend money to knock off sims on all of your scholarships on the first cycle. Almost all of my disaster recruiting seasons begin with spending too much money on the first cycle and running into problems. You are also a huge target for coaches like me that sees someone is very vulnerable because they spent too much cash on the first cycle. (Reminder: this article is written mainly for non-elite programs - I understand there are a lot of great elite programs that chase all of their recruits the first cycle).
(2) I categorize and track first cycle spending like this:
(a) Top Priority: Spend enough money on the first cycle that will knock all sim coaches off recruit AND keep the recruit red to any human coach that spends just enough to try to knock off sim coaches.
(b) Standard Priority: Spend just enough money to knock all sim coaches off recruit. Quick note: The easiest way to measure my team's prestige is to monitor how many Campus Visits it takes to turn a 3 BCS school sim recruit green. I have five teams and this number varies greatly.
(c) Placeholder Spending: Spend just enough money to turn recruit Yellow against three sim coaches for a chance to review scouting reports and see if other human coaches are pursuing this recruit as well. Coaches often do this for recruits outside their 360 before spending money to turn them green.
(d) Undecided High Priority Spending: Spend enough money to turn the undecided recruit green even if other human coaches spend just enough to turn it green without competition.
(e) Undecided Bargain Spending: Spend just enough to turn the undecided recruit green and if there is another coach doing the same it will be yellow.
So for example if I have 12 scholarships to fill I might spend money on one (a) priority, seven (b) priority, and also send out eight (e) priority. I'm not going to spend it on 12 a & b on the first cycle.
Remember my introduction referencing poker? I feel like first cycle spending is a huge poker game for me. I am looking for tells on all of the great coaches close to me. I also want to mix up my game so nobody knows how much money I am spending.
If there is one weakness in recruiting that I have noticed from most great coaches it is that they are very predictable. Every season in every world they chase the same type of recruits for each position. They spend similar amounts of money on recruits each First Cycle of Recruiting. They spend predictable amounts on the second cycle for recruits they are being challenged for by human coaches.
I mention this because I frequently (always in Wilk) track other coaches first cycle spending by understanding the five different types of spending I think occurs on the first cycle from great coaches. I have assigned a dollar amount I think/know that a coach spends for certain situations and track in real time his estimated remaining budget. This helps me immensely going forward as I make decisions spending recruiting budget.
Second Cycle
The best recruiting cycle! AKA The how screwed am I cycle!? Get the results back from your initial spending and determine the damage. Let's say my Top Priority recruit is yellow against an elite and the scouting report comes back as average. Out of my seven (b) priorities four are green, two are yellow to non-elite humans, and one is yellow to a sim coach. My undecided bargain spending returned one green high potential, two green average potential, one yellow high potential, and one yellow average potential, and three red high potential recruits.
I will update my yatzr tool and make sure to look at recruits that are still 3 sim coach recruits, and search each of my human competitor coaches initial results. I'll look closely at the efforts of the elite that is challenging me for my top priority recruit. If he has a bunch of green recruits and doesn't have a lot of areas to spend his cash on I will move on from that recruit. If he has eight yellow recruits to human coaches I like my chances.
My goal for the second cycle is to put myself in a position to battle for blue chip recruits. I do this by getting the rest of my class filled quickly and cheaply. So for our example here on my class of 12 scholarships if I have one yellow high priority, four green standard recruits, one yellow standard against sim, two yellow standard against non-elites, and one high potential green undecided recruit that I like. I'll spend to turn the sim recruit green to give me a total of 6 green recruits.
I'll spend money on two recruits that are currently 3 sim coach recruits. That will get my green total up to 8 IF no other human coach jumps these recruits. I'll compare current 3 sim recruits to the two recruits I am yellow against humans and ask myself which of these should I spend 15-20 CVs on to turn green. My goal is to spend enough money to turn two recruits green for a total of 10 green recruits.
That will leave me 2 scholarships. I'll have my high priority recruit vs an elite as one and leave the other open (or one of my green undecided as a back-up) as I focus on my high priority recruit with a large portion of my remaining budget - although I won't spend it all immediately.
As for other coaches Second Cycle spending this is where poker tells come in handy. I make mental notes (sometimes on paper too!) about certain coaches tendencies. For instance I estimate how much two human coaches are spending battling each other on a recruit. Oftentimes I will spend $200 on a Scouting Report just to see the recruit's potential. If the potential comes back a 3 I have a pretty good guesstimate how much certain coaches spend on the second cycle against humans trying to get the recruit green. If the recruit is still yellow I guesstimate how much each coach has spent as well as each of their remaining budgets. If the recruit comes back a 2 and it isn't a high priority position for a coach I will guesstimate a different amount spent than if it is a 3 on a high priority position. There is a lot of value for me staying at a program long term to get a good understanding how each coach spends their recruiting budget. There are a few coaches that I am quite certain I understand well enough to be within 2-5k estimate of their remaining budget at all times. This is good info to have.To summarize the second cycle - at the end of the second cycle I like to see a clear path of how my recruit class gets filled. Don't spend money on battles I'll lose. Look for comparable recruits that can be cheaper. Put myself in a position where I'll have a large cash surplus to invest in a stud. This means avoiding all of the land mines that I used to always run into (battling for low priority positions, battling for players that ultimately won't make much of a difference in my program, etc.)
Third Cycle to Signing Day
I am comparing my remaining cash to my estimates of my human opponents and making decisions based on this. I'm not wasting any money as a non-elite fighting an elite unless I know I have enough of a cash advantage to win. I'll use that cash on a different recruit that will cost me a lot less.
I am monitoring coaches remaining budget guesstimates (sending scouts to human battles to help guesstimate) , sending scouts to green recruits of coaches that are out of money to build a shopping list, hunting for sim recruits that could be an upgrade that are out of my 360, monitoring potential challenges for my high priority recruits (oftentimes spending more money on my green recruits if they are high potential and high priority for me.
Oversimplified I am being opportunistic. I like to have cash surplus monitoring everyone else looking for opportunities to take advantage of. What recruits have been missed? What green recruits can be taken from others for less than $20k?
Honestly I am not going to spend a lot of time after the first couple cycles because if you screw up your first couple cycles there isn't a lot you can do to undo it. When I say screwed up I mean you spent a lot of money on recruits that other human coaches spent on also. If you failed on the first two cycles take a look at where you went wrong and make sure you change it next season. We have all had rough recruiting classes and use it as growing experience
Signing Day until end of Recruiting
The only real value I'll add here is this is another area where recruiting is like poker. There are a lot of tells and most coaches are very predictable how they spend and prioritize after signing day. Find out how much money a coach will spend on a recruit before signing day (through experience). Estimate how much budget he has left. Estimate how he prioritizes his recruits after signing day - does he spend money on all of them or one at a time? Which one was first? I admit that I have battled several coaches for several recruits at a time just to see how they play after Signing Day. It helps me understand how they prioritize and spend their money compared to other coaches. I have lost a lot of battles where I didn't really need the specific recruit and gained some good info because I plan on staying at programs for the long haul. Next time I battle that coach I'll have an idea how to beat him.
Conclusion
Spend most of your time recruiting before you spend any money. Prioritize what you can and can't live without before you spend any money. Figure out what recruits will be expensive and avoid them initially. Understand how each of your human opponents recruit. Pick out their recruit class before the first cycle. Know where to look for cheap recruits. Don't get in battles for low priority recruits. Learn how to estimate other human coaches remaining budgets. These are a few of the lessons I have learned.
Good luck out on the recruiting trail!
