Receiver Maze

I know there is no coverage of the bowls or play-offs. Well there is plenty of time to look back and dig into the games. For now I want to cover something else. I have some data from a different world and from human coached teams that year. I have looking at this data every now and again, and I thought lets share the results of what I found out. I wonder if these numbers would be similar to what we would see in Wilkinson.

We have a formula to rate QBs. Why not have a rating for receivers? This is a tricky thing to do since there are so many formations with different numbers of skilled receiving players on the field.

From the table above we see that there is always a total of 5 possible receivers. They vary by position, it seems that there is always at least a single Tight End or Wide Receiver on the field for all the formations. These formations have an effect on the recruiting habits of coaches and also their coaching philosophies.

The graph below shows the distribution of various things with regards to people who were targeted at all in games. We have all the graphs showing the raw numbers. We have a graph showing the number of targets by position, number of receptions by position, number of dropped passes by position and the total number of players by position.

From the blue graph above we can clearly see that the wide receivers are targeted the most, followed by the running backs and then the tight ends. The wide receivers being targeted the most should not be a surprise as usually you have at least two on the field at all times since most coaches run either Pro Set or Trips in most cases. Now this should not be much of a surprise to anyone as from the purple graph above, there are more wide receivers than any other position, running backs are in second place and the tight ends are bringing up the rear. Wide receivers being targeted the most you expect them to catch the most balls as shown in the red graph above but we have to be careful when looking at this graph as it is a raw numbers graph. We need to look at the proportions to get a better idea of what is going on. The receptions and drops graphs look similar for the same reason. Now let’s look at the graph below.

From the graph above we can see that the wide receivers have the least number of drops, whilst the running backs and tight ends are pretty much similar in terms of their drops rates. The way the proportions were calculated is using the below formulas:

Receivers have the highest percentage of catches at 63.23%, followed by running backs at 62.98% and tight ends just behind at 61.23%. From looking at the numbers all the positions catch about 6 out of 10 balls thrown their way. From this I would say just chuck it to whoever you trust the most with the ball. All the players seem to come through at about the same rate. Now the other very important question is the coverage incompletion percentage. I know this seems like a crazy thing to look into but stay with me. I looked into this because I wanted to know who could not get open. I know sometimes the quarterback might have just thrown the ball away because of pressure but I believe by looking at this number we can figure out who was covered the most and couldn’t make a play still. Now looking at the numbers it seems like the tight ends have a hard time when it comes to getting open or making a play when covered. This should not surprise anyone as most tight ends in the game have similar speeds to the linebackers who cover them and thus the linebackers are able to keep up and make the play themselves. The numbers also show that there is no difference between the wide receivers and the running backs in terms of who had the ability to get open and make the catch. This again should not be a surprise as the players are usually quicker than those covering them and thus they should be able to get open by blowing past the defender. Now with this last metric I am sure there will be questions and I welcome it. My logic is not always sound so the metric might not make any sense at all.

So, we have been looking at the numbers by position, how about we look at them by year. We will break it down by the year of the player i.e. are they a freshman, sophomore and so forth.

Looking at the blue graph it seems like the juniors and seniors are targeted the most. This makes sense considering that they have developed their game the most and thus they would be found at the top of depth charts. Being at the top will allow them to be on the field more and as seen in the red graph they make the most catches and again this is based solely on the raw numbers and for a better understanding we should look at the proportions. Drops and receptions have a similar story and note of caution. Of all the receivers on the field most of them are juniors in college according to the purple graph. Well at least for the year when this data was collected.

The equations used for the calculation of the below numbers are very similar to the equations mentioned earlier. The below graphs paint a better picture than the raw number graphs above.

Looking at the graph we can see that freshman receivers (these could be tight ends, wide receivers, running backs) have the most drops. They are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else when it comes to drops. The safest pair of hands are those of 5th year seniors, they almost catch everything. Sophomores have way better hands than the freshman and they are slightly worse than the seniors.

Freshman receivers are the only players who catch less than 60% of balls thrown their way with the 5th year seniors catching almost 65% of balls thrown their way which is the most. The range for percentage of catches is from 59.91 to 64.88, that is a wide range to consider when setting that depth chart or maybe not since this is based on a single year worth of data.

From the third graph, it seems like underclassmen have a hard time getting open and making plays. They have the highest coverage incompletion percentage. This should not be a surprise, they are still learning the system which can be seen in general in the low formation I.Q they usually have. The upperclassmen have more seasoning and are able to get open and make more plays for you. The 5th year seniors are especially good at it. These graphs say to me target the 5th years seniors the most and to do this maybe have them at the top of the depth chart which is were I think most coaches have them since they have developed through time and have better number/attributes.

I think I will stop here for now. I hope to get some feedback from you guys. I am planning on getting similar data for Wilkinson and do the same thing. Maybe then compare how the two worlds run things. Until the next time, take it easy.