S132, DIAA Bubble Watch Day 11. Drinking on the rooftop.
- Jun 6, 2017
- 9 min read
Day 11:
There were some surprise losses in the top 25, which will yank some teams back into contention. That said, this is still a tightish bubble.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. That means no matter your GUESS ranking and your 9-0 record, I don’t project that forward. I project what would happen if you lost the remaining 4 games 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
SWAC
I took GW off the board after todays loss.
Last updated: day 11
Lock/ 100% on track:
Texas Southern (WIS: 11-0), Alabama A&M (11-0)
Clearly on track:
Grambling State ( 9-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 39): Lost a number of spots despite winning the past two days. Still GSU should be ok unless there is a loss to a SIM somewhere. GSU now has the difficult task to try on Wednesday to dethrone Southern.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Liberty ( 7-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 28): Two losses in two days have LU currently on the outside looking in. Right now, because the SOS likely will take a minor hit, it looks like it might just end badly by a smidgen. Then again, the teams ranked 28-35 have particularly many games that are not easy remaining this season.
Southern Conference
Last updated: day 11
Lock/ 100% on track:
Georgia Southern (9-2)
Clearly on track:
Northwestern State (8-3, WIS: 18, SOS: 17): Very close to lock status. Now its just about beating SIMs and beating ETSU to win the division.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Western Carolina ( 8-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 48): For the moment WCU is on the cut line, but if it wins out vs all SIMs, I would tend to think it will likely just squeeze in. Should be close though.
East Tennessee State ( 8-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 35): It is not often that scoring 2 measly field goals is enough to win you a game, but ETSU managed that feat today. I think ETSU is not safe yet though. If they were to lose to NWSU on Thursday, it would likely end up very close.
Nicholls State ( 8-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 87): Essentially swapped places with ETSU today after getting a goose egg, when one touchdown would have been enough. Since the SOS is likely to deteriorate a bit more I would assume that beating SIMs will not be enough. Then again I also assume a good bit of movement the next two days.
Pioneer Football League
Last updated: day 11
The PFL sure looks strong right now, likely a 4 bid conference. However, after todays loss, I took Charleston Southern off the board.
With Dayton starting to click, and Drake having a new coach, it feels like the PFLs power balance might get reshuffled.
Lock/ 100% on track:
Drake (10-1), Dayton (10-1), Jacksonville (9-2).
San Diego (10-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 67): With how things moved, SDU is now also on the fairly save side. As a loss tomorrow would likely not cost many spots.
Ohio Valley Conference
Last updated: day 11
Just as Marist was starting to pull away in the North they got reeled back in. Everybodys in-division record now includes at least one loss and at least one win. That much parity could be dangerous. The South is much clearer. After todays loss, I took St Peters off the board.
Lock/ 100% on track:
Jacksonville State (11-0)
Eastern Kentucky ( 9-2, WIS: 10, SOS: 10): It was a frantic fourth quarter, but EKu was the one having the last laugh. The playoffs are sown up, tomorrows game vs JSU is a test to see if EKU is already at the top of the conference.
Samford ( 8-3, WIS: 17, SOS: 14): The losses the last two days were minor setbacks, but no reason to ring any alarm bells. Unless Samford loses to the two remaining SIMs, this team should safely make the playoffs, and even then the SOS might be good enough.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Marist ( 6-5, WIS: 25, SOS:1): Just as things were starting to look better, marist draws the sshort straw in a shootout. Because its orangepace, and it’s the 4th season, people had high expectations. But it is 5 losses now. The SOS is so good, maybe Marist could get in with 6 losses, but that is not a given as the SOS really has no place to go but down. At this point I think Marist likely still needs a win or two to get there safely, particularly as the CC game would be a danger for Marist whose SOS can’t really improve.
Tennessee Tech (8-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 42): Looky there, two wins in a row and T-Tech has moved back inside the bubble and back in the hunt for the division. Still I think to make the playoffs for sure T-Tech needs to win out. Going 1-1 would likely keep them juust outside of the cut line but it would be close. Moreover, winning the division could also come with some perils, although I think a loss in the CC would probably be ok.
Iona (7-4, WIS: 33, SOS: 18): Managed an important win today. Iona can –maybe- afford one more loss. A potential loss to Marist tomorrow would probably be a setback, but maybe not completely to the point where Iona could not come back inside the bubble
Eastern Illinois (6-5, WIS: 38 SOS: 9): If there was any margin left, then todays loss to Iona used it up. I would think that the ranking would maybe improve enough if EIU wins out –although that is not a given. But any further slip ups spell certain doom, and T-Tech and Marist are still waiting!
Not on track yet:
Tennessee-Martin ( 5-6, WIS: 41, SOS: 6): I was ready to burry UTM, but then it beat Mrist today. This still remains an uphill battle though. If one wants to get in with 6 losses, that usually takes a top 3 SOS (and even then is no given). UTM could get close, but I am not sure its enough. But then there is also the little matter of having to beat 2 more teams to get there, particularly T-Tech on thursday.
NEC
Last updated: day 11
With Albany a SIM, the NEC feels like a somewhat orphaned conference, where Lehigh is likely the favorite
Lock/ 100% on track:
Lehigh (10-1)
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Robert Morris ( 8-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 33): Beat a SIM today. RMU has 3 losses. The question right now is mainly whether beating all the remaining SIMs will create enough margin that a potential loss in the CCG would be ok. I think right now it looks that RMU will probably get there.
Not on track yet:
Albany (9-2, WIS: 40, SOS: 116): Given that Albany has the most talent, it is not inconceivable that it could beat all the remaining SIMs, make the playoffs. After yesterdays loss to RMU I wouldn’t call it hyper likely though, as the SOS is really low right now and will only make small improvements at best.
MEAC
Last updated: day 10
It feels like there is a real chance MEAC might end up being a one bid conference this season.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Florida A&M ( 8-2, WIS: 30, SOS: 88): The second season of this rebuild is going ok, but not so well that FAU is can afford to lose before the CC.
Howard (6-4, WIS: 27, SOS: 10): Beat two SIMs the last two days and moved nicely forward. Howard challenged itself in OOC, and went 1-4 with a W over ETSU. I am not sure Howard gets in with anything less than the championship, it should be close should Howard lose the CC. However, given that Howard is the 5 time defending champ, that is not so unlikely to happen.
Not on track yet:
Norfolk State (7-3, WIS: 49, SOS: 93): 7-0 vs SIMs, 0-3 vs humans. The SOS may not drop much, but I do think that Norfolks chance to get there without winning the conference are small. A win over FAM on day 13 is indispensable.
Ivy League
Last updated: day 11
Remember yesterday, When I took Cornell off the board because of a SIM loss. Well that team indicated beat Princeton today. I doubt that is a good sign for the Ivy League
Lock/ 100% on track:
Princeton: ( 10-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 90): Still no win over a human, as Princeton lost to Cornell today, which had me bump them down a category, which is something I seldom do. 10-0 vs SIMs isn’t overly impressive though. The SOS is likely to get worse. While keeping beating the SIMs should be enough to make the playoffs. But a loss in the CCG could make this uncomfortably close.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Yale ( 11-0, WIS: 21, SOS: 110): Is behind Princeton, despite its win over Cornell because Yale has played SIMs with worse records. Consequently Yale probably needs to beat all the remaining SIMs until the CC game.
Gateway
Last updated: day 11
Clearly on track:
Youngstown State (9-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 59): There is a win over Savannah and NWSU, but also a loss to bubble team EIU. Still YSU is on track for the moment. Should they stumble vs Indiana State or a SIM, things could get close.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Northern Iowa (8-3, WIS: 24, SOS: 32): The OOC didn’t go incredibly well for NIU, which challenged itself vs 3 top 20 teams, but couldn’t pull out a W. Still, the SOS is ok and things are not lost. The margin for error such, that a loss to Savannah on Wednseday would not put them close to the bubble, likely still on the right side though
Savannah State (8-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 50): Beat 5 SIMs in a row now. A loss tomorrow would put SSU in probably just behind the cut line just under 50% chance to move back in I think.
Big Sky
Last updated: day 10
After some more losses I took Montana and Weber State off the board.
With several coaches threatening to leave, this could be the also season the Big Sky is this competitive. However, it also means that there are several decently built rosters rising coaches may want to look at. But beware, there are some new coaches who are clearly having good game planning skills. The north was hard to rate for me, given that overall record of the division is not as good as the quality of the teams.
Lock/ 100% on track:
Texas State (10-0, WIS: 8, SOS: 65): After beating SFA and pretty much wrapping up the division there the CC game is likely the main focus.
Clearly on track:
SF Austin (8-2, WIS: 9, SOS: 2): Somebody finally managed to put 50 on this startup. Still even TSU couldn’t completely shut down SFAs offense. 7 wins over human coaches is impressive, even if some of them were closely contested. There are still 2 human coaches remaining to prove SFA is as real as they look.
Portland State (8-2, WIS: 9, SOS: 2): Somebody finally managed to put 50 on this startup. Still even TSU couldn’t completely shut down SFAs offense. 7 wins over human coaches is impressive, even if some of them were closely contested. There are still 2 human coaches remaining to prove SFA is as real as they look.
St Mary’s (7-3, WIS: 16, SOS: 7): Beat CPSU today. At this point that is 3 top 50 wins including a top 15 win. Despite 3 losses things are looking ok for SMU. Still that is no reason to give PSU a W tomorrow. While I assume SMU would get in with 5 losses, I am not completely sure, but beating PSU or Weber State would end the discussion and I got SMU as the ever so slight favorite tomorrow.
Not on track yet:
Northern Arizona (7-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 47): Still hasn’t beatn a likely playoff team, but beating Montana still helped bring NAU back to a shot for now. But I still think NAU will have to pull at least one, and likely both upsets vs TSU and SFA.
Cal Poly (4-6, WIS: 37, SOS: 3): Sunday brought yet another close loss. Cal Poly may well be the unluckiest team so far in DIAA. There are two overtime losses, plus two close losses. There was nothing close about todays game though. As a consequence, Cal Poly is pretty much out of it, as the SOS will take a beating the rest of the way
Atlantic 10
Last updated: day 11
Lock/ 100% on track:
William & Mary (11-0), Villanova (9-2)
Clearly on track/should be in:
Maine (10-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 99): Scored 270 points the last two days. The SIMs are not human and may not mind, but it still feels like that is cruel.
Not on track yet:
Florida Atlantic ( 9-2, WIS: 43, SOS: 119): Keeps having one of the worst SOSs. FAU has a good record, which will eventually lead to a better WIS ranking despite the horrible SOS. The primary reason FAU is not on track is not the schedule though, but rather the loss to SIM JMU. Even though the ranking is likely to improve if FAU doesn’t stumble tomorrow, I think FAU absolutely needs to beat Maine to have any shot at the playoffs. If that happens it could get close, or at least FAU would have a shot to win the conference and make it in that way
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