Season 132 D2 Journal
Season 132's Biggest Upsets
Texas A&M Kingsville's Streiffman pulls off TWO big upsets over preseason #1 Humboldt State and on the road over #8 West Liberty State. They also beat preseason #2 St. Joseph's (though it looks like GT called that one). Now project to finish undefeated.
Valdosta State's Columbusbuck goes 3-1 against a 1-3 Media Guide projection; including a 39-7 win over preseason #6 Northwood.
Defending National Champion Mikesy had his Slippery Rock pulled off the slight upset with a road win at Humboldt State. But in a big way, 51-24.
Edinboro's Dankebe was supposed to lose to West Chester, but pulled off the upset in a nailbiter, 31-27.
Teams on the Bubble (17)
Lock Haven was projected to be a top 3 seed. Sitting at WIS #40, they will have to win out to have any chance at the playoffs.
Lock Haven faces just one human team the rest of the way. That's Cheyney. They needed to beat Tarleton State earlier this season to be comfortable and they didn't do it, losing 45-21. Now it looks like whoever loses between the two conference mates will be on the outside looking in come playoff time, as Cheyney faces no other human coached teams the rest of the way. Even a win over Lock Haven might not be enough for Cheyney. Their other three opponents are ranked #107, #129, and #139. That towel is hanging pretty loose right now.
Southern Connecticut sits at #29, but they are favored to win their remaining games and they should just make it in, which will end Long Island's faint hopes.
West Chester faces all sims down the stretch (two of them in the top 53), so they'll be rooting for the three teams they lost to to win out, most notably- South Dakota at Humboldt State and Edinboro hosting defending champs Slippery Rock to further boost their resume. They're in the field at the moment at #29, but it will be a bumpy ride between now and Thursday.
Winston Salem is feeling Lock Haven's less than stellar season as they were needing the Eagles to give them a SOS boost. Right now, they are sitting at 35th in the WIS rankings, with an SOS of 96. Their game against Livingstone may determine if they make field or not; luckily, they also will have a win over #43 Johnson C Smith added to their resume should they lose to Livingstone.
As Augustana wins out and the three opponents they lost to win out (South Dakota, Stonehill, and Winona State), Glenville's SOS would normally start improving dramatically. However, they get two sub-100 sims the next two days and that will hurt.It doesn't hurt though that they get West Virginia Wesleyan in the season finale. That game will probably determine if they get into the field or not.
Indianapolis needs to avoid any missteps tonight against Ashland- a loss and they are in trouble. They should win comfortably and make the field.
West Virginia State sits at 41st right now and have three sims left on the schedule. Lucky for them, two of those sims are overrated (46th and 44th) and should, paired with the Yellow Jackets expected win over Concordia, increase WVSU's SOS significantly enough to get them into the top 32. It will be thisclose.
Edinboro faces a daunting task. Their last two opponents are bottom of the barrell teams (132nd and 121st) and they will in all likelihood lose to Slippery Rock. Ranked 32nd at the moment, that might just be enough to knock the Fighting Scots out of the field- even with a 3-1 finish.
Central Oklahoma faces nothing but sims to end the year, three of them ranked 92nd and lower. They will fall in the rankings despite winning out the year. If Valdosta State and Tarleton State, two teams they lost to, can pull off upsets down the stretch (at Henderson State, vs. Kingsville in the CCG), that might stamp their passport for the playoffs. It's unlikely, however, and UCO could be on the outside looking in this year.
Kentucky State faces all sims the rest of the slate. Currently ranked 23rd, they WILL fall in the rankings after facing #67, #68, #95, and #98. Will they stay in the top 32? Too close to call.
Adams State is taking the same cruise as Kentucky State. Unlike KSU, though, they will have a conference championship game to boost their resume. Win or lose that game, I don't see them going down with the boat.
Conference mates West Georgia and West Alabama are benefitting greatly from the strength of the Gulf South Conference in comparison to all the other conferences. In an ordinary year, their resumes would not be enough to get them in. This year they are. The best case scenario for the conference: West Alabama pulls off the road upset and advances to the CCG where they will get a SOS boost, facing conference champ Henderson State. The two teams face each other in just a few hours and the winner will in all likelihood be dancing. The loser will join Central Oklahoma, West Chester, and others on the couch, biting their nails, watching as the brackets come in.
The biggest hurdle for 30th ranked Carson Newman right now? Their extremely weak schedule. They lost to the only human coached team they faced and it wasn't pretty- 59-10, a loss I see them repeating in four days time. They will not make the playoffs.
Minnesota State Moorhead has to beat Winona State tonight or they will be home for the holidays. It's very unlikely to happen.
IN (22) Stonehill Slippery Rock Winona State Valdosta State Texas A&M Kingsville South Dakota Tuskegee West Virginia Wesleyan Virginia Union Colorado Mines Tarleton State Saint Joseph's Millersville Ashland Northwood Delta State Humboldt State Augustana Livingstone West Liberty State Henderson State Truman State OUT (4) Western Oregon Central Arkansas Merrimack Concord Predicted Bubbles to get in (10) Lock Haven SoConn Glenville Indianapolis West Chester Kentucky State Adams State West Georgia Winston Salem Central Oklahoma It's going to be interesting to watch the next five days.
