S132, DIAA Bubble Watch. Drinking on the rooftop.
Day 10:
I did some updates, most of those are at the bottom of the page. Overall the bubble got somewhat tighter, and one conference is eating itself: the OVC north.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. That means no matter your GUESS ranking and your 9-0 record, I don’t project that forward. I project what would happen if you lost the remaining 4 games 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
SWAC
Last updated: day 10
Lock/ 100% on track:
Texas Southern (WIS: 10-0), Alabama A&M (10-0)
Clearly on track:
Grambling State (8-2, WIS: 20, SOS: 32): Beat Liberty today to get a good bit of margin, and unless there are losses to SIMs, this should all end well for GSU. GSU now has the difficult task to try on Wednesday to dethrone Southern.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Liberty (7-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 59): Liberty lost to GSU by 18 points today, which is not actually all that much when you consider the 5 interceptions. Things will not get any easier as Liberty travels to Southern tomorrow. If that one –as can be assumed- is a loss, then Liberty will probably end up being very close to the bubble until the end of the season, and it might just end badly by a smidgen.
Not quite on track yet/needs help:
Gardener-Webb (5-5, WIS: 41, SOS: 15): Despite todays loss, the WIS ranking improved. But with 5 losses, GW now needs a good bit of carnage in front of it. And to win out of course.
Southern Conference
Last updated: day 10
Lock/ 100% on track:
Georgia Southern (8-2, WIS: 6, SOS: 9): Ready for the Conference championship after todays W over WCU.
Clearly on track:
Northwestern State (7-3, WIS: 17, SOS: 4): Beating Nichols yesterday put NWSU very close to lock status. Now its just aabout beating SIMs.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Western Carolina (7-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 53): WCU mounted a good 4th quarter comeback, but it wasn’t quite enough. For the moment WCU is behind the cut line, but if it wins out vs all SIMs, I would tend to think it will likely just squeeze in. Should be close though.
East Tennessee State (7-3, WIS: 36, SOS: 56): Beat two SIMs the last two days. ETSUs season was on the brink of going sour early more than once, but an OT win over Iona, and Fridays win over WCU helped keep ETSU in the conversation despite a loss to Savannah. However, given the SOS being where it is, ETSU has to beat both Nichols and NWSU to be sure to get in and at least one to have any shot.
Nicholls State (8-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 90): Nicholls is one of the positive surprises of the season and there is a chance that goldboys 7th season may be the one when he gets Nicholls to the playoffs. That said, the SOS looks better than the sched was, as there is no W over a human yet. There is a small chance that Nicholls gets in by just beating the remaining SIMs, but I tend to think it would be super close. A W over ETSU tomorrow would be creating some really necessary margin.
Pioneer Football League
Last updated: day 10
The PFL sure looks strong right now, likely a 4 bid conference. However, after todays loss, I took Charleston Southern off the board.
With Dayton starting to click, and Drake having a new coach, it feels like the PFLs power balance might get reshuffled.
Lock/ 100% on track:
Drake (9-1)
Dayton ( 9-1, WIS: 7, SOS: 19): 3 wins over top 30 teams outweigh one close loss to Jacksonville. And with the SOS likely holding up, Dayton would have to lose to a SIM to get close to missing the playoffs.
Jacksonville ( 8-2, WIS: 14, SOS: 20): After todays W over CSU, there are only SIMs left. And even a loss to a SIM would not put JU close to the bubble.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
San Diego (9-1, WIS: 21, SOS: 78): That was a vicious beating SDU took from Drake yesterdayI still think SDU makes the playoffs even with should it lose to Dayton on Wednesday, but it would not be a comfortable margin.
Ohio Valley Conference
Last updated: day 10
Marist is starting to pull away in the North. Everybody else in that division is just trying to hang on for dear life to a playoff spot. I am not sure that anybody will manage it though as it currently looks like that division will eat itself alive.
Lock/ 100% on track:
Jacksonville State (10-0)
Clearly on track:
Samford (8-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 17):Played a valiant game vs JSU today, but was done in by turnovers. Still with only EKU left, this should be plenty good. The SOS will likely deflate a bit, but probably not to the point where Samford gets into trouble.
Eastern Kentucky (8-2, WIS: 10, SOS: 17): Beat two SIMs the last two days, which is plenty in EKUs situation. Now the real division games start. I think the SOS will fall a bit, but likely not to the point where EKU could get into trouble.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Marist (6-4, WIS: 22, SOS:1): Three human wins in a row and the number one SOS have Marist looking better than two days ago. Because its orangepace, and it’s the 4th season, people had high expectations. And OP played the toughest sched out there and all 4 losses were to good teams. But it is 4 losses. The SOS is so good, maybe Marist could get in with 6 losses, but that is not a given. At this point I think Marist likely still needs a win or two to get there safely, particularly as the CC game would be a danger for Marist whose SOS can’t really improve.
Eastern Illinois (6-4, WIS: 34 SOS: 13): I am still not sure what to make of EIU. I do however know that splitting the games vs UTM and SPU didn’t do much for EIUs playoff chances. I think EIU needs to go at least 2-1 the rest of the way. There is a decent shot EIU gets in with 5 losses, but even that is not a complete certainty! And well… the three teams at the top of the OVC north ranking are still on the docket.
Tennessee Tech (7-3, WIS: 38, SOS: 54): 4 Interceptions killed T-Tech vs Marist on Sunday. T-Tech came back to keep Ionas offense at bay today, but the overall effect is still negative. That said, with EIU, UTM and SPU T-Techs remaining schedule is maybe just a smidgen easier than anybody elses in thee division. Still I think to make the playoffs for sure T-Tech needs to win out. Going 2-1 would likely keep them juust outside of the cut line.
Iona (5-3, WIS: 24, SOS: 22): (6-4, WIS: 33, SOS: 26): Things were looking good after beating UTM yesterday, but then Iona sputtered to only 3.4 yards per play vs T-Tech. Iona can –maybe- afford one more loss. On Wednesday Iona will be slight underdog vs Marist, which makes winning tomorrows bout with EIU crucial.
Not on track yet:
St. Peters (5-3, WIS: 45, SOS:86): 6-0 vs SIMs, but couldn’t quite hang with the OVC south teams. Will need to do better, probably 4-1 vs the north teams.
Tennessee-Martin (4-6, WIS: 42, SOS: 14): If one wants to get in with 6 losses, that usually takes a top 3 SOS (and even then is no given). I doubt UTM will have that. And then there is the little matter of having to beat 3 good teams to get there.
NEC
Last updated: day 10
With Albany a SIM, the NEC feels like a somewhat orphaned conference, where Lehigh is likely the favorite
Lock/ 100% on track:
Lehigh ( 9-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 60): Kept on track vs SIMs the last two days. The odds on favorite to win the conference and 4-1 vs humans including a W over GSU. Unless there are multiple losses to a SIM, Lehigh is not gonna miss the playoffs.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Robert Morris (7-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 35): Really helped itself yesterday, by beating one of the better SIMs out there. Still, RMU has 3 losses. The question right now is mainly whether beating all the remaining SIMs will create enough margin that a potential loss in the CCG would be ok. I think right now, that RMU will probably get there.
Not on track yet:
Albany (8-2, WIS: 44, SOS: 116): Given that Albany has the most talent, it is not inconceivable that it could beat all the remaining SIMs, make the playoffs. After yesterdays loss to RMU I wouldn’t call it hyper likely though, as the SOS is really low right now and will only make small improvements at best.
MEAC
Last updated: day 10
It feels like there is a real chance MEAC might end up being a one bid conference this season.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Florida A&M ( 8-2, WIS: 30, SOS: 88): The second season of this rebuild is going ok, but not so well that FAU is can afford to lose before the CC.
Howard (6-4, WIS: 27, SOS: 10): Beat two SIMs the last two days and moved nicely forward. Howard challenged itself in OOC, and went 1-4 with a W over ETSU. I am not sure Howard gets in with anything less than the championship, it should be close should Howard lose the CC. However, given that Howard is the 5 time defending champ, that is not so unlikely to happen.
Not on track yet:
Norfolk State (7-3, WIS: 49, SOS: 93): 7-0 vs SIMs, 0-3 vs humans. The SOS may not drop much, but I do think that Norfolks chance to get there without winning the conference are small. A win over FAM on day 13 is indispensable.
Ivy League
Last updated: day 10
After todays loss to a SIM, I took Cornell off the board.
Lock/ 100% on track:
Princeton: ( 10-0, WIS: 11, SOS: 82): 10-0 vs SIMs isn’t overly impressive. But although the SOS is likely to get worse, keeping beating the SIMs should be enough as Princeton is sure to make the playoffs. That said a W over Cornell tomorrow would be nice for seeding.
Yale ( 10-0, WIS: 24, SOS: 114): Similar to Princeton, except that Yale has played SIMs with worse records which is somehow not made up for by a win over Cornell. Consequently Yale probably needs to beat all the remaining SIMs until the CC game.
Gateway
Last updated: day 9
Clearly on track:
Youngstown State (7-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 41): There is a win over Savannah and NWSU, but also a loss to bubble team EIU. Still YSU is on track for the moment. Should they stumble vs Indiana State or a SIM, things could get close.
Work to do/ on track for a close decision:
Northern Iowa (6-3, WIS: 25, SOS: 25): The OOC didn’t go incredibly well for NIU, which challenged itself vs 3 top 20 teams, but couldn’t pull out a W. Still, the SOS is ok and things are not lost. However the margin for error is not such, that a loss to Savannah on Wednseday would not put them on the bubble.
Savannah State (6-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 49): It could well be that after making it 3 times, SSU is not making it this time. There is a decent win over ETSU, but also 3 losses, which given the SOS means that Savannah likely has to win out, which means there is likely a necessity to upset NIU on Wednesday.
Big Sky
Last updated: day 10
After some more losses I took Montana and Weber State off the board.
With several coaches threatening to leave, this could be the also season the Big Sky is this competitive. However, it also means that there are several decently built rosters rising coaches may want to look at. But beware, there are some new coaches who are clearly having good game planning skills. The north was hard to rate for me, given that overall record of the division is not as good as the quality of the teams.
Lock/ 100% on track:
Texas State (10-0, WIS: 8, SOS: 65): After beating SFA and pretty much wrapping up the division there the CC game is likely the main focus.
Clearly on track:
SF Austin (8-2, WIS: 9, SOS: 2): Somebody finally managed to put 50 on this startup. Still even TSU couldn’t completely shut down SFAs offense. 7 wins over human coaches is impressive, even if some of them were closely contested. There are still 2 human coaches remaining to prove SFA is as real as they look.
Portland State (8-2, WIS: 9, SOS: 2): Somebody finally managed to put 50 on this startup. Still even TSU couldn’t completely shut down SFAs offense. 7 wins over human coaches is impressive, even if some of them were closely contested. There are still 2 human coaches remaining to prove SFA is as real as they look.
St Mary’s (7-3, WIS: 16, SOS: 7): Beat CPSU today. At this point that is 3 top 50 wins including a top 15 win. Despite 3 losses things are looking ok for SMU. Still that is no reason to give PSU a W tomorrow. While I assume SMU would get in with 5 losses, I am not completely sure, but beating PSU or Weber State would end the discussion and I got SMU as the ever so slight favorite tomorrow.
Not on track yet:
Northern Arizona (7-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 47): Still hasn’t beatn a likely playoff team, but beating Montana still helped bring NAU back to a shot for now. But I still think NAU will have to pull at least one, and likely both upsets vs TSU and SFA.
Cal Poly (4-6, WIS: 37, SOS: 3): Sunday brought yet another close loss. Cal Poly may well be the unluckiest team so far in DIAA. There are two overtime losses, plus two close losses. There was nothing close about todays game though. As a consequence, Cal Poly is pretty much out of it, as the SOS will take a beating the rest of the way
Atlantic 10
Last updated: day 9
Lock/ 100% on track:
William & Mary (9-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 7): 7-0 vs humans including 3-0 vs top 15 teams. What is more to say?
Villanova (7-2, WIS: 11, SOS:8): With a really good SOS, which will only drop slightly Villanova is safe. That doesn’t mean that losing the division to WM didn’t hurt
Clearly on track:
Maine (8-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 50): Two top 25 wins is clearly outweighing that close loss to Villanova. Beating all the SIMs should be good enough.
Not on track yet:
Florida Atlantic (7-2, WIS: 55, SOS: 118): FAU has a good record, which will eventually lead to a better WIS ranking despite the horrible SOS. The primary reason FAU is not on track is not the schedule though, but rather the loss to SIM JMU. Even though the ranking is likely to improve if FAU doesn’t stumble vs a SIM, I think FAU absolutely needs to beat Maine to have any shot at the playoffs.
