DIAA Conference Championship Preview / Bubblewatch day 13. Drinking on the rooftop.
So this is the final bubble watch. We did have some carnage, with 4 teams between 28 and 35 losing. However, nobody dropped far. The truth is, there was some margin between 30 and about 34, and the teams that really could have moved up… lost. So consider this not primarily a bubble watch, but alo a guide to watching the championship games, if you are anywhere near the bubble. For each team on thee bubble I noted which of the teams in action tomorrow they played.
Championship previews in increasing order of bubble importance:
(I put in lines as I see them). I also added which bubble teams each contestant played so you know how the game might impact the bubble.
Tennessee Tech (12-1, WIS: 8, SOS: 23) -4.5 vs Eastern Kentucky (11-2, WIS: 5, SOS: 5)
The first things these two teams have in common is a loss to Jacksonville State, but it is still these two and not Jacksonville that meet again in the championship. T-Tech and EKU have share the title under different coaches for the last 10 seasons. It promises to be a high scoring affair.
Neither team played anyone still on the bubble.
Maine (13-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 10) -5.5 vs William & Mary (11-2, WIS: 12, SOS: 102):
Maine is going for its 7th consecutive title.Maine didn’t play any top ten teams, but did get past NIU to start the season (20-10). I think that the challenge by WM will be pretty good as WM challenged itself and should be better for it, although the results were not always eye popping blowouts, they were still very respectable.
Both teams played Villanova
Youngstown State (13-0, WIS: 10, SOS: 72) – 8.5 vs Northern Iowa (10-3, WIS: 18, SOS: 12):
NIU got here by taking care of both FIU and SSU, and has beaten three different likely playoff teams. Still YSU looked just a smidgen better, not to mention that YSU is the three time defending champ.
YSU didn’t play anyone on the bubble. NIU played Drake.
Texas State (13-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 105) -12.5 vs St Marys (12-1, WIS: 3, SOS: 15):
This could be Saint Marys first title in more than 40 seasons, as gt_deuce has his project on thee right track on the back of his running and receiving RBs. However the obstacle is formidable, as Texas State is way under ranked. This is the team that beat down EKU by 62-12 earlier.
Both played Cal Poly and NAU. SMU also played CCU and Drake.
Albany (13-0, WIS: 7, SOS: 81) -7.5 vs Lehigh (12-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 85)
Neither team went crazy in OOC, however Albany does have the better win, (EIU). This will might be the biggest test for Lehighs new coach yet.
Albany played Cal Poly, both played CCU
San Diego (13-0, WIS: 11, SOS: 74) -31.5 vs Jacksonville (12-1, WIS: 24, SOS: 112)
I am unsure how much Jacksonville can fall. Usually, if you have a bad SOS losses can drop you far, and if you have a good SOS but a mediocre record, it is more hits to the SOS that kick you in the teeth. Jacksonville is probably safe, but just to be sure, it would be prudent to avoid a blowout. Something closer than the 41 point loss to Dayton earlier in the season. Is this the moment to Mention that SDU beat that Dayton team?
Jacksonville played no bubble teams. SDU played Howard.
Texas Southern (13-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 44) vs Alabama A&M (9-4, WIS: 26, SOS: 11)
AAM is not quite safe yet, and with TSU going for its 5th in a row, there is always a chance of a blowout. Bubble teams other than AAM will be rooting for exactly that. Altough some of theem would hurt because they played AAM. Both TSU and AAM played Liberty, AAM also played Northwestern.
Princeton (13-0, WIS: 20, SOS: 120) vs Yale (12-1, WIS: 25, SOS: 106):
Frankly neither team has impressed me all that much, the schedules were mostly devoid of real opponents but Princeton looks just a smidgen better to me, than the Yale team that lost to a Sim to start the season. Both teams are probably safe, as the points difference to the bubble is decent. However, weird things can happen when teams with good records but bad SOS’s lose a game. Usually that should be made up for by the jolt they should get to the SOS. Bubble teams should probably root for Princeton, but in any case for a blowout.
Both teams played only Cornell.
Georgia Southern (13-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 45) -10.5 vs Northwestern State (10-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 49)
Northwestern State is not safe yet, 4 spots does not feel comfortable although I think NWSU might stay inside the bubble, even if GSU beats last seasons conference champion. Bubble teams will be rooting for a blowout so NWSU falls as far as possible. The first meeting between these two was no blowout tough (GSU won 23-13 in a run heavy game). NWSU played AAM, GSU played NWSU, Cal Poly and WCU.
Florida A&M (12-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 52) -2.5 vs Howard (9-4, WIS: 30, SOS:33)
Putting a line on this game is really difficult. Howard has more talent, and FAM never really blew opponents out. But FAM has beaten 2 top 40 teams with the little talent it does have, a feat that so far eludes Howard. However this game is bubble watch central because chances are, that a Howard-loss would open up a spot for someone else. Bubble teams will be rooting hard for FAM to kick its miracle season up another notch.
Howard previously played Villanova. FAM played WCU and Norfolk State
SWAC
It would have been better for the conference, had Liberty won, but Grambling managed to hold on. But who knows, maybe the SWAC is a 4 bid conference anyway. But if things go deadly wrong, who knows it could even become just a 2-bid conference.
Lock:
Texas Southern (13-0), Grambling State (11-2):
Work to do:
Alabama A&M (9-4, WIS: 26 SOS: 11): Stood pat by beating Gadener-Webb. That is now a 3-4 record vs humans, with a number of decent teams on the schedule. I think AAM can be optimistic even in case of a (probable) loss tomorrow, but it would definitely not be a comfortable margin.
AAM played Northwestern State.
Liberty (8-5, WIS: 32, SOS: 8): Came up juust short. 3 points down with 90 second to go LU couldn’t get a first down at GSUs 40 yard line. The loss hurts and definitely puts Liberty in jeopardy. However, the tough OOC and 3 tough conference foes have led to a good SOS, and with plenty of losses elsewehere, LU ended up on the 32nd spot. That is by no means a comfortable place as sometimes weird things still happen on championship day and teams move over other teams just due to SOSs changing. However right now it seems more probable that teams will move out of the bubble rather than steal bids, so LU has reason for optimism.
Liberty played AAM, Texas State, and William and Mary.
Southern Conference
ETSUs shot at the playoffs is over.
Lock:
Georgia Southern (13-0)
Work to do:
Northwestern State (10-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 49): Bubble teams were rooting for an upset by ETSU, but NWSU held them off. They moved forward a bit deeper into the field, but whether it was enough if they lose tomorrow is not sure. Better avoid a blowout.
NWSU previously played AAM and GSU.
Western Carolina (10-3, WIS: 34 SOS: 108): Gaining only two spots was maybe a bit disappointing. Had WCU pulled off the upset over GSU we would not be talking now. But there are at least two teams that might fall out of the bubble it they lose tomorrow, so WCU has a chance, however if those teams will fall quite far enough is not a given. WCU really has to follow the scoreboard closely tomorrow.
WCU played GSU, and FAM.
Pioneer Football League
Lock:
San Diego (13-0), Dayton (11-2)
Should be in:
Jacksonville (12-1, WIS: 24, SOS: 112): Demolished a decent SIM today. The SOS is still deservedly bad, which means a loss could drop them unusually far, however playing a 13-0 team should also give the SOS a jolt, so I think Jacksonville is probably ok.
Jacksonville played no conference finalists.
Work to do:
Drake (7-6, WIS: 33, SOS: 2): As expected, lost to San Diego today. But didn’t lose a spot. It is not unlikely, that this high talent SIM might make the playoffs, given the chances for teams to drop. However, seeing as the SOS is really high, even a little drop could move Drake further down, and they played five teams in action tomorrow.
Drake Played T-Tech, NIU and St Marys as well as Jacksonville and Dan Diego.
Ohio Valley Conference
Things moved in the wrong direction for Iona, and I took them off the board.
Locks:
Eastern Kentucky (11-2), Jacksonville State (11-2), Tennessee Tech (12-1), Eastern Illinois (9-4), Tennessee-Martin (10-3)
Marist (9-4, WIS: 19, SOS:1): I am not sure Marist really needed the win today to make the playoffs, but getting it sure means there are no doubts to be had. 9-4 with this schedule is more impressive than 12-1 with some other records out there.
NEC
Locks:
Albany (13-0), Lehigh (12-1)
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (9-4, WIS: 31: SOS: 28): Sputtered offensively vs Lehigh and lost 31-7. But like liberty, the fall was not as steep as could have been feared, and CCU is –for the moment- just ahead of the curve. A win over bubble team Cal Poly in the first game of thee season might end up making the difference. That said, There is a good deal of sweating to do as CCU is not completely outside the margin where they could be affected by fluke movement on day 14.
Played, Albany, Lehigh and St Marys.
MEAC
Lock:
Florida A&M (12-1)
Work to do:
Howard (9-4, WIS: 30, SOS: 33): Beat a SIM today. Plenty of bubble teams will be looking at the Howard game tomorrow. Howard is partially in this situation because the MEAC is an SOS killer. Howard lost to 4 top 30 teams in OOC, but also failed to get a signature win, BC remains the only win over a top 50 team. Because, being at 30, there is a realistic chance that Howard would drop several spots if they lost tomorrow, so they will likely need to beat the pesky upstart that is FAM. I got to say tough, there is an outside chance they may stay in even with a loss.
Howard previously played San Diego.
Ivy League
Should be in:
Princeton: (13-0, WIS: 20, SOS: 120): If Princeton loses tomorrow, they will test the assumption that a one loss team never misses the playoffs, as this is currently the worst SOS out there. I think that the assumption is correct, which I think Princeton is probably safe.
Work to do:
Yale (12-1, WIS: 25, SOS: 106): Yale also didn’t really play anyone other than Cornell, and lost a game to a SIM. A loss here would let us see how bad a schedule can be to get in with two losses. I assume the SOS will get a bit of jolt, so I think Yale is probably also safe, but I have seen this weird kind of thing happen once or twice where a one loss team fell fairly far. Better make sure the game is at least not a blowout.
Needs help:
Cornell (9-4. WIS: 37, SOS: 54): Still here, still with a miniscule chance at the playoffs, if things go wrong for plenty of bubble teams elsewhere. But this is not really in Cornells own hands anymore.
Cornell played both Yale and Princeton.
Gateway
Locks
Youngstown State (13-0), Florida International (11-2).
Savannah State (10-3, WIS: 22, SOS: 42): Lost to NIU, which made bubble teams unhappy. But since SSU didn’t fall far and isn’t playing tomorrow, this is safety.
Northern Iowa (10-3, WIS: 18, SOS: 12): Held of SSUs 4th quarter rally and beat its second ten win team in a row today for a third top 25 win. As a result, despite playing tomorrow NIU, is now completely safe and can look at maybe snagging the conference.
Big Sky
I took SFA off the board as things didn’t move in their direction
Locks:
St Mary’s (12-1), Texas State (13-0)
Portland State (11-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 79): Came back in the 4th quarter to beat Cal Poly, with a good defene. At this point PSU is safe, as it will sit on the sidelines tomorrow and then try to beat a higher seed in the first round on Saturday.
Work to do:
Northern Arizona (10-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 99):Beat a SIM today, but didn’t move visibly forward.The resume is not a home run to get into the playoffs At this point I am somewhat pessimistic, putting NAUs chances at maybe 20% as they need several teams ahead of them to lose. I can see them getting ahead of Howard, and maybe NWSU should they lose, and maybe Drake and WCU if their previous opponents do badly.
NAU played TSU and SMU.
Needs help:
Cal Poly (7-6, WIS: 36, SOS: 4): The offense was not quite good enough to hold off PSU. The SOS is awesome, however 6 losses is probably a bit too much. In the end there is still no win over a top 40 team despite numerous opportunities. Still there is a small chance that Cal Poly may get there, if teams like Howard, NWSU AAM etc lose and their previous opponents win. Its unlikely, but it may be worth a small prayer.
Cal Poly played Albany, Georgia Southern, Texas State and St Marys.
Atlantic 10
Locks:
Maine (13-0), William & Mary (11-2)
Should be in:
Villanova (10-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 40): Beat a SIM today, and pretty much stayed pat. The margin to the bubble is not wide, but just big enough, that a team who is not playing can be fairly confident of making it. That said, a small look at the scoreboard tomorrow wouldn0t go amiss.
Villanova played Howard, AAM, Maine, and William & Mary.
