DIAA Bubble Watch, S131. Drinking on the rooftop.
We are closing in only one day to go in the regular season. I can say, that today the bubble got a smidgen tighter today, as not too many teams between 25 and 38 lost, Northern Iowa even managed a big upset to maybe take a spot out of play. But tomorrow there is a lot of action where bubblish teams get opponents they might not beat so easily.
Updates have no particular order today and several will likely be coming late tonight.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. That means no matter your GUESS ranking and your 9-0 record, I don’t project that forward. I project what would happen if you lost the remaining 4 games 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
SWAC
Last update: Wednesday
It was the calm before the storm today - with all playoff contenders playing- and beating - a SIM
Lock:
Texas Southern (WIS: 12-0)
Grambling State (10-2, WIS: 18, SOS: 41): Ran out of options to mess up. Tomorrows game vs Liberty is a rivalry, but GSU cannot fall 14 spots even if this were to end the wrong way. This one is much more important to Liberty.
Work to do:
Liberty (8-4, WIS: 31, SOS: 10): Keeps throttling SIMs. Liberty might be out of margin for error as it is not sure a 5th loss would be sustainable as the SOS will likely take a few hits before the meeting with GSU on day 13. Then again, there is a lot of likely losses in the bubble area tomorrow, and it is not completely unthinkable that Liberty could even make it if they lost to GSU. But better not risk it.
Alabama A&M (8-4, WIS: 26 SOS: 10): Keeps moving along vs SIMs, although it was close at the half this time. After a difficult OOC with 4 losses to start the season AAM is on its way back. Still in the end it should be really close, as even if AAM wins tomorrow, a probable loss in the Championship would mean that it should be fairly uncomfortably close.
Southern Conference
Last update: Wednesday
Lock:
Georgia Southern (12-0)
Work to do:
Northwestern State (9-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 65): Stood pat with another clear win over a SIM. Played 4 top 32 teams and got a nice W over Dayton, but also lost 3 games. If they can beat the in division opponents NWSU should move deeper into the bubble. However whether that is far enough to be able to afford a loss in a CC game would be hard to say. The game on Thursday vs ETSU looks very important right now.
Western Carolina (9-3, WIS: 36 SOS: 104): Barely got by a SIM today. Probably still thinking about what could have been, had they pulled off the upset over GSU. Right now there is not much WCU can do by themselves, however WCU is not so far out that of the bubble that it would take extraordinary things for them to squeeze in in the end, I would expect them to end up square on the bubble if they beat their SIM tomorrow.
Needs help:
East Tennessee State (8-4, WIS: 48, SOS: 97): Maybe I should have taken ETSU off the board, but they could also still win the conference. For that they would have to beat NWSU tomorrow tough. Any other outcome and there is no way ETSU makes the playoffs.
Pioneer Football League
Last update: Wednesday
Lock:
San Diego (12-0), Dayton (10-2)
Should be in:
Work to do:
Jacksonville (11-1, WIS: 25, SOS: 111): Beating CSU got Jacksonville two spots back. However the SOS is still bad The OOC was as cupcakey as it gets. However the resume is in a way where a second loss, even in the championship, could be at least a minor problem. Still overall Jacksonville is likely to make the playoffs also because the SOS will probably improve a smidgen tomorrow.
Drake (7-5, WIS: 33, SOS: 3): Beat a fellow SIM to pulp today. For the moment still very much in the playoff race and clearly the toughest SIM out there, with absolute top talent.. However the schedule was tough and 5 losses were the consequence. Drake will likely end up just outside the bubble if they lose to SDU tomorrow, as is likely. But it might be looks fairly close.
Ohio Valley Conference
Last update: Wednesday
After todays loss I took Samford off the watch. Things kind of cleared up in the OVC. Looks like a 6 bid conference this season.
Locks:
Eastern Kentucky (10-2), Jacksonville State (10-2), Tennessee Tech (11-1)
Eastern Illinois (9-3, WIS: 16, SOS: 8): (barely) Managed to keep upstart UTM at bay today. All three losses are to top 15 tams, and there is a win vs a top 10 team and now another top 25 team. There is even a theoretical chance at still winning the division. That is enough: lock
Tennessee-Martin (10-2, WIS: 21, SOS: 61): Despite todays loss I am locking UTM up, a nice feat in the OVC for a second season build. The game was close and the WIS ranking stayed up, and although tomorrows game has UTM as the underdog, it also carries no SOS risk.
Should be in:
Marist (8-4, WIS: 23, SOS:1): Beat St Peters today to stay in a decent position playoff wise. Tomorrows game will be marists 10th vs a human opponent this season (!). Usually teams with top 5 SOS get in if their record is anywhere north of 8wins.
Needs help:
Iona (7-5, WIS: 37, SOS: 15): The 4th loss in a row –getting blanked by T-Tech- has Iona way on the ropes now. That said, this team is just in between ‘needs help’ and work to do. If they beat St Peters tomorrow I still think they are not gonna get in, however if there really is a decent amount of carnage it is not unthinkable. But right now they need to turn it around fast.
NEC
Last update: Wednesday
Locks:
Albany (12-0)
Lehigh (11-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 97): Lehigh is now a lock, as they will not fall 15 spots with only one possible loss. That is despite RMU being the only win over a human team.
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (9-3, WIS: 29: SOS: 45): Looked good in its tune up for Lehigh tomorrow. With how things moved, CCU would likely be square on the bubble if they lost tomorrow. A win would pretty sow up the playoffs. Usually you need a top 30iesh SOS toget to about 32nd with a 9-4 record. That just about is where CCU projects aft4r tomorrow
MEAC
Last update: Wednesday
Bethune Cookman is off the board after todays loss. There is a real risk that the MEAC will end up being a one bid conference this season if FAM should win the conference.
Lock:
Florida A&M (11-1)
Work to do:
Howard (8-4, WIS: 32, SOS: 23): Got by BC today - thanks mostly to winning the turnover battle - and now will be off to the championship game. Howard is still having an SOS where there is an outside chance they could stay in the top 32 if they lsot to FAM in the championship game, but I would be slightly pessimistic. The more certain thing is winning the conference. Beating a first season build shouldn’t be out of reach for Howard, although FAM has surprised quite a few teams.
Ivy League
Last update: Wednesday
Should be in:
Princeton: (12-0, WIS: 20, SOS: 119): Beat a SIM today. Still, Yales strongest competitor for worst top 25 resume is Princeton who also only beat Cornell among Human opponents. I think they can definitely afford at least one loss. Even though the SOS is bad, they might get in even if they were to lose two games. But just from a fairness perspective, with this sched, losing two games really shouldn’t be good enough.
Work to do:
Yale (11-1, WIS: 27, SOS: 113): Beat a Sim, but lost 3 spots today. This might be the least impressive top 30 resume out there. There is a loss to a SIM and only one win over a human, which is Cornell who is unlikely to make the playoffs. The SOS imploded more than I thought, and right now Yale would probably get in at 12-2 due to the improvement in SOS, but it is not a complete given. Also, with Harvard, ale plays one of the tougher Sims out there tomorrow, and losing would be a really bad idea right now.
Needs help:
Cornell (8-4. WIS: 40, SOS: 67): Still here, still with a miniscule chance at the playoffs, if things go wrong for plenty of bubble teams elsewhere. But this is not really in Cornells own hands anymore.
Gateway
Last update: Wednesday
Locks
Youngstown State (12-0), Florida International (10-2).
Should be in:
Savannah State (10-2, WIS: 19, SOS: 60): Has also now beaten all the SIMs on its path, and there issn’t a bad loss on this resume. Even a loss tomorrow is unlikely to cost SSU 12 spots. Still no reason to just give up on seeding.
Work to do:
Northern Iowa (9-3, WIS: 20, SOS: 16): NIU was one of the big winners of the day, coming out on top of FIU in a run heavy game and jumping 9 spots. The resume looks fairly nice now, having two top 25 wins. However WIS can be unfair, and sometimes success gets punished. I.e. the reason I have not yet moved NIU up, is that NIU has won the division. Paradoxical as that sounds winning the division lowers NIUs playoff certainty, as they could lose twice, once tomorrow to Savannah and then to YSU on Friday. A win tomorrow would however lay all doubts to rest tough.
Big Sky
Last update: Wednesday
Locks:
St Mary’s (11-1)
Texas State (12-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 106): If there really were any questions left, then TSU has settled them by now.
Should be in:
Portland State (10-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 88): Beat its last SIM today, but lost two spots. There is a human game left, Cal Poly. If that one were a surprise loss it could get closish but would most likely would stay on the good side.
Work to do:
Cal Poly (7-5, WIS: 34, SOS: 7): Beat a SIM today and stood pat. The SOS is great but Cal Poly likely needs to beat PSU on Thursday which would probably move the needle just enough. But PSU is better than any team Cal Poly has beaten so far.
Northern Arizona (9-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 79): Another one of the big winners of the day. It wasn’t pretty but a W is a W and that is now 2 wins over humans in a row. Still the resume is not a home run to get into the playoffs as today was NAUs best win on the season. I’d say NAUs chances are just below 50% but it does not take that great an imagination to see scenarios where NAU makes the tournament.
Needs help:
SF Austin (7-5, WIS: 39, SOS: 25): holding NAU to 21 points was not quite good enough, as the offense sputtered a bit. That loss was probably the one to many, particularly as SFA is unlikely to improve its SOS tomorrow. To make the tournament, they need a good deal of carnage both tomorrow and on Friday. Not impossible, but unlikely.
Atlantic 10
Last update: Wednesday
Locks:
Maine (12-0), William & Mary (10-2)
Work to do:
Villanova (9-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 30): Gave up 66 to WM today and as a consequence lost 5 spots. This also means that Villanova will have to sweat at least a little bit until the end, and definitely needs to take care of its SIM opponent tomorrow. Still, if they win that, Villanova can probably be optimistic to make the playoffs even if the margin will not be milewide.
