DIAA Bubble Watch, S131 D8. Drinking on the rooftop.
Here is to a new start. I will update this at several points today and likely add more conferences.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
SWAC
Well, the SWAC finally got both GSU and Liberty to the point where they might make the playoffs at the same time, and then AAM went and stunk it up, so in the end, the SWAC is likely still not a 4 bid conference and if things go wrong, it could even be a 2 bid conference again.
I decided that Gardener-Webb was not close enough to make the board.
Should be in:
Texas Southern (WIS: 8-0, WIS: 3, SOS: 34): It is kind of early but TSU is again in position to repeat from last season. What kind of boggles the mind, is how the SOS is so good, given that TSU has so far only played one human team with a winning record and even the SIMs don’t have incredible records.
Work to do:
Grambling State (7-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 38): Missing out on the playoffs last season was a minor step back, but this season the playoffs look fairly likely. The OOC went pretty well with 4-1, and the record vs humans is currently 3-1. That said there are two tough human games left, and while GSU would likely squeeze in even with two losses, there is no good in testing that theory.
Liberty (5-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 19): Had more yards than AAM today, but turnovers did Liberty in. The OOC was interesting, and yes that is ow 3 losses, but the SOS is nice and the win over Marist looks better tall the time. Still I don’t love-love Libertys chances, as tomorrows game vs TSU is more than a difficult challenge. And even though the SOS is likely to stay up, they probably need to beat GSU on day 13 to have a shot at the playoffs.
Need help:
Alabama A&M (4-4, WIS: 31 SOS: 19): Pheww. That was close against Liberty. Todays W over keeps AAM quite alive for the moment. AAM was named one of the disappointments of the season, and I cannot really disagree with that. 4 losses to start the season had my team way at the back of the pack. But now that is at least also 2 wins over bubble teams. Stilll in the end it should be really close, tendency bad side, as even if AAM wins everything from here on out, th SOS is likely to take a number of small hits and a probable loss in the Championship would mean that the SOS would have to be really good.
Southern Conference
I think this will be a two bid conference. But the OOC didn’t go well, and right now it looks lie GSU and the rest. I decided that Nichols State and App State were not close enough to make the board.
Should be in:
Georgia Southern (8-0, WIS: 5, SOS: 30) Coachoatie’s second season started with a middle of the road difficulty OOC, which GSU swept. Particularly that win over Lehigh looks nice. There is some work left to do tough with ASU and Western Carolina still coming. But even losses there should not be big problems as long as GSU beats the SIMs.
Work to do:
Northwestern State (5-3, WIS: 33, SOS: 20): Currently having the second best WIS ranking in the conference. Played 4 top 32 teams so far and got a nice W over Dayton, but also lost 3 games. Todays win over App State was a good sign tough. If they can beat the in division oponents NWSU should move into the bubble. However whether that is far enough to be able to afford a loss in a CC game would be hard to say.
Western Carolina (6-2, WIS: 49 SOS: 113), Was down at the half, and then completely turned its game with ETSU around. That was necessary to stay viable in the playoff race as the 5 Sims (combined 4-36) on the schedule so far have completely killed the SOS
Needs help:
East Tennessee State (4-4, WIS: 55, SOS: 79): What to make of ETSU? Two losses to SIMs with human recruited talent, but also a win over Norfolk. With the two other human losses however, ETSU still is quite far outside of the bubble. But ETSU at least has a fair shot at winning the division.
Pioneer Football League
Should be in:
San Diego (8-0, WIS: 11, SOS: 82): Another Season where everything looks peachy already early. Two wins over potential playoff teams and only one game vs a human remaining, means that SDU gets in unless it loses SIMs.
Dayton (7-1, WIS: 10, SOS: 14): The loss vs NWSU is not great, however already 3 wins over potential playoff teams should more than make up for that. It is not Daytons fault that neither AAM nor Howard look as good as usually. Still, unless Dayton loses to a SIM, Dayton should comfortably make the playoffs. That said, if any SIM is dangerous, then it sure is Daytons day 11 opponent Drake.
Work to do:
Jacksonville (7-1, WIS: 24, SOS:77): The OOC was as cupcakey as it gets. And right now Jacksoville is 0-1 vs humans. However the win over Drake today is at least something and bating all the SIMs is not a given for all bubble teams. And with only CSU really remaining JU is on a good way. However the SOS will drop, and if the bubble should be tough, even a second loss could make things uncomfortable.
Drake (4-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 91): The toughest SIM out there, with absolute top talent and has easily beaten the other SIMs it played. However the schedule was tough and 4 losses were the consequence. With both Dayton and SDU still left, chances are that Drake will end up missing the playoffs unless it beats one of them.
Needs help:
Charleston Southern (4-4, WIS: 48, SOS: 42): Given the SOS and 4 losses, CSU needs to pull off a miracle conference win to make the playoffs, because the SOS will likely further drop.
Ohio Valley Conference
Despite the loss of some great coaches two seasons ago, the OVC is clearly still the cream of the crop, being by far the deepest conference out there.
Should be in:
Eastern Kentucky (7-1, WIS: 4, SOS: 1): Seeing wins over 5 human teams already, one could almost forget the vicious beating EKU took earlier from Texas State. In fact, WIS thinks this was the toughest schedule so far, and even losses to Samford and Jacksonville wouldn’t depress the ranking overly.
Work to do:
Jacksonville State (6-2. WIS: 12, SOS: 2): SOS-wise right behind EKU, with 4 wins over potential playoff teams. Cross division didn’t go great (two close losses), but overall JSU is still nicely on track and probably looking forward to Tuesdays game vs EKU and a shot at finally winning the division.
Samford (4-4, WIS: 44, SOS: 45): Is this the season mraston finally makes the playoffs at Samford? Right now it is not looking super good. The loss to Cal Poly kinda hurts, and consecutive losses to Iona and Marist haven’t eliminated Samford, but reduced the margin to zero. That is a problem with EKU and JSU stil on the docket. I think the SOS will end up being good enough for a 4 maybe even a 5 loss team, but Samford needs to upset at least one of those two, maybe both.
Tennessee-Martin (8-0, WIS: 13, SOS: 78): Raise your hand if you are not surprised that philfulmer98 has this team way ahead of where a second season rebuild is supposed to be. Well, that is a lot of hands. I guess everybody saw the recruiting rankings. Yes the OOC was very cupcakey and UTM only had JSU inc ross division. But beating JSU is already pretty big. Still, with 5 human opponents left, there is a decent amount of work left to be done.
Eastern Illinois (6-2, WIS: 23 SOS: 32): It feels like EIU is getting better as the season progresses. After a clear loss to St Marys, they kept it close vs Albany, and then came out on top vs JSU. Still, there is a gauntlet remaining, and EIU probably needs 2 or 3 more wins. Beating St Peters tomorrow would create some margin for error.
Iona (7-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 37): Beat Montana in OOC, and otherwise kept to SIMs. A decent split of the games vs EKU and Samford has Iona in much better position than last season. Still Iona too will profit from the SOS booster that is the OVC north. However beating one or tso of the remaining humans still seems necessary, and well, 4 of them are ranked in the top 25 right now.
Tennessee Tech (7-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 72): I guess it is an exaggeration that 7-1 is a disappointment when you lost by 1 point in a shootout, but T-Tech did win the conference last season and made the playoff final, and well…has only played one human team so far. Still T-Tech is for the moment clearly inside the bubble. However lost to T-techs former coach tomorrow, and the margin of error reduces.
Marist (5-3, WIS: 25, SOS:8): And speaking of of: orangepace put together an interesting OOC against 3 potential playoff teams currently on the bubble, but lost the contests to Liberty and NIU. Wins over Samford and NWSU however have him in decent contention for the playoffs this season. I am sure T-tech would get in as a 5 loss team. 6 losses? Not so sure. So if the gauntlet of T-Tech and UTM ends with two losses, Marist could find themselves with the back against the wall by Monday.
Murray State (5-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 22): As if things are not already good enough in the OVC, SIM Murray State swept a OOC that included human teams Yale and EWU. Still since the conference started things have been trending toward Murray not making the playoffs. And that is likely how it will end.
Needs help:
St. Peters (5-3, WIS: 59, SOS:86): The only OVC team with a loss to a SIM. Generally not yet enough talent to hang with the others. However –in theory- SP has plenty of chances to impress the WIS ranking computer.
NEC
Locks:
Albany (8-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 23): Beat 3 potential playoff teams and has a surprisingly good SOS with only one human opponent left. Even a two losses to SIMs would not kick them out of the playoffs.
Work to do:
Lehigh (7-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 58): After a win over RMU, currently 1-1 vs humans and has beaten an otherwise cupcakey schedule. With only one human game left Lehigh is well on its way toward the playoffs. However, the SOS is likely to drop a good bit so Lehigh needs to beat all the SIMs at least.
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (5-3, WIS: 29: SOS: 10): It was an interesting OOC for CCU, going 3-2 beating the teams outside the top 30 and losing to those inside the top 20. Now the SOS is not likely to quite hold up, but there is at least some chance, that CCU could make it in with a 4th loss. However beating Lhigh on day 13 would be the kind of thing that would make CCU certin to make the playoffs.
Robert Morris (5-3, WIS: 54, SOS: 83): RMUs resume has that really nice W over Villanova, however the SOS is already not so good, and there are also 2 losses to bublish teams. More importantly with the SOS likely declining, RMU probably needs to win out. With Albany hosting on Tuesday, that is unlikely.
MEAC
There is a real risk that the MEAC will end up being a one bid conference this season.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Florida A&M (7-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 43): Surprisingly it is first season rebuild FAM which has the best shot at the playoffs. Somehow FAM managed 3 wins over humans, not always glorious, but winning enough. The next two days will be very telling tough, as games vs Duquens and Norfolk are not gonna be gimmes. I think FAM might be able to afford two losses, but the margin would definitely be used up then.
Howard (4-4, WIS: 32, SOS: 7): Similarly to AAM, Howard put together a really tough OOC and ended up losing 4 games. The Problem is even bigger here tough, in the sense that the MEAC is worse and the SOS is bound to really decrease, which will likely become a problem as the remaining opponents are 2-6 on average. Still, if the SOS should hold up better than thought, maybe Howard can snag an at large. Thee better chance however is winning the conference. And that does not seem out of reach for Howard.
Norfolk State (6-2, WIS: 72, SOS: 118): I know, the WIS ranking is looking real bleak right now, and the SOS is unlikely to improve much. Howevr experience shows that 2 loss teams even with bad SOSs can make it in, provided the bubble is really soft, and usually take jumps in the rankings later in the season. Still even winning out is not very likely to get Norfolk to at large place. They definitely will need to beat FAM on Monday. Oh, and they also need to dispatch a SIM with talent in Duquesne.
Needs help:
Bethune Cookman (4-4, WIS: 43, SOS: 26): Similar to Howard, except that BC played a clearly worse schedule and lost to a SIM. It is a first season rebuild after all. Unless they win the conference I don’t really see this happening.
Ivy League
Nobody is really safe yet in the ivy. Altough Yale has a clear schedule and is close just because of that. But generally the theme here is how nobody really played an impressive OOC.
Work to do:
Yale (7-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 74): This might be the least impressive top 25 resume out there. There is a loss to a SIM and only one win over a human, although that is Cornell which is still a playoff contender. But because the ivy east has no other human teams, Yale is already very close to the playoffs. Since the SIMs have okish records, the SOS will not even compeletly implode. All Yale needs to do is beat those SIMs.
Princeton: (8-0, WIS: 28, SOS: 119): Hasn’t played a human opponent yet. Games vs Cornell and SIM Holy cross will likely be the biggest tests. The SOS maybe improve a tiny bit, so I think they can definitely afford at least one loss. But the SOS is so bad even a second is not a complete given to make the playoffs. And just from a fairness perspective, with this sched, losing two games really shouldn’t be good enough.
Needs help:
Cornell (6-2, WIS: 37, SOS: 73): Cornells OOC wasn’t out there difficult, but compared to its conference brethren this was a regular gauntlet. Funily enough Cornell beat both ETSU and WCU, but lost to SIM (with human talent) SMSU. The loss to Yale yesterday has them somewhat in difficulty tough. I think if there were a loss to Princeton a 10-3 record would end up being square on the bubble and depend on the softenss of the other teams. The game on Monday thus looks big.
Holy Cross (6-2, ): This is a SIM with considerable human talent. It lost to human opponents but beat all other SIMs. If it can beat one of the remaining two humans, it just might slip in.
Gateway
Locks
Youngstown State (8-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 15): It was actually not that impressive an OOC, but beating FAM turned out to be worth a lot more than predicted and then YSU also completely shut its conference foes down on defense. Now there are no human teams left, and YSU would have to lose like 3 games to get even close to the bubble.
Should be in:
Florida International (7-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 99): Two wins over William & Mary and AAM outweigh the loss to the current #1 team by a good bit. Even if FIU disappointed and lost both remaining human games, they would still be inside the bubble.
Work to do:
Northern Iowa (5-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 17): Played a tough OOC, and came away with a signature win over Marist but also 3 losses to top 15 teams. Now the SOS is pretty nice and NIU might be able to afford another loss, although that would render it close. Still they need to beat at least one of FIU and Savannah at the end of the regular season.
Work to do:
Savannah State (7-1, WIS: 14, SOS: 39): Savannah State is looking to build on last seasons second round. And wins over Samford and AAM were definite steps in that direction. Getting blanked by YSU was not great, but the direction is still looking nice. It feels that 2 losses to FIU and NIU would be bearable, but the SIMs need to be beaten.
Big Sky
One gets the feeling, that somehow in the end there should be 4 or 5 teams getting bids. However, if the Big skye beats up on itself in the wrong way, it could be as low as 2 bids also.
Should be in:
St Mary’s (7-1, WIS: 6, SOS: 12): Fairly safe already. With 4 wins over humans all in the top 50. Sundays game vs PSU is about the division. But even losses to all remaining humans are likely sustainable. Not that that is probable.
Work to do:
Texas State (8-0, WIS: 15, SOS: 97): Way underranked right now. Played some aweful Sims, but that complete demolition of EKU says that this team is fairly good. TSU probably still needs another win over a human, maybe even two. I have them as the favorite in all three tough.
Portland State (7-1, WIS: 21, SOS: 72): The OOC may have had only one game to aa human - a loss to SDU. But since the conference began, PSU has helped itself considerably with Ws over SFA and NAU. Still with three human games remiaing, there is work left to do. A win tomorrow over SMU would go a long way to create a lot of margin.
Cal Poly (4-4, WIS: 38, SOS: 3): Has a really interesting resume having played 7 humans. Still there is a theme: lost to all top 30 teams and beat all teams not in the top 40. The consequence is a great SOS but 4 losses. The SOS may just hold up, but Cal Poly really needs to get the record a good bit above .500 which likely means they need to beat PSU and/ or maybe also SMU. And losing to EWU tomorrow would definitely be a big problem.
Montana State (5-3, WIS: 40, SOS: 56) Took a tough OT loss to Cal Poly today. That makes three losses now, all charachterised more by lack of offense than lack of defense. The consequence is that Montana has only little margin for error left and probably would end up square on the bubble -tendency bad side- with even one more loss. So beating SFA tomorrow is very important.
SF Austin (6-2, WIS: 39, SOS: 27): Currently 1-3 vs humans. Could SFA get in with 4 loss? Possible, but not a given. Tomorrows game vs SFA is thus just as important for SFA as for Montana. One team will make a move toward the playoffs, the other will be super close to elimination.
Northern Arizona (6-2, WIS: 47, SOS: 107): 5 SIMs in OOC didn’t help the SOS, which made eeven 2 understandable losses to SMU and PSU a problem. The SOS will improve a bit, but it isn’t sure to get to the point where any more losses are sustainable. So the triple from Monday to wednsdeay vs TSU, Montana and SFA is gonna feel like the playoffs.
Needs help:
Eastern Washington: (4-4, WIS: 60, SOS: 81): Chances are more theoretical at this point. However EWU has chances to really improve its SOS. But it would take a number of upsets.
Atlantic 10
Should be in:
William & Mary (6-2, WIS: 8 SOS: 5) : WM played a really tough OOC. Yes thy lost two, but there is no shortage of resume building wins. Even another loss is no problem. So unless WM loses to SIM AIs (and probably more than one), they are definitely in.
Maine (8-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 60): It wasn’t all difficult oponents however the wins over NIU and Villanova are nothing to sneeze at, and being unbeates is nice in itself. It is hard to imagine the Maine missing the playoffs.
Work to do:
Villanova (6-2, WIS: 26, SOS:40): It isn’t Villanovas fault the wins over AAM and Howard don’t look as good as usually. Still Villanova is well on its way toward the playoffs. Another loss if it should happen vs WM would likely be ok. Losing is the thing to really avoid though.
Florida Atlantic (6-2, WIS: 45 SOS: 95): Beat all the SIMs, but lost its two human game, by taking a pasting from WM, but also losing to surprise upstart FAM. The SOS will improve a bit, but it would likely take a soft bubble for FAU to get in if they lost another game. So they probably have to upset Maine on Tuesday.
