Pre-mortem DIAA Bubble Watch. Drinking on the rooftop.
So this is not quite a post mortem. Lets call it a “pre-mortem”?? Before we get into the details, an overall observation: The bubble got a lot softer yesterday, with plenty of teams ranked between 25 and 35 losing. Today however, only two of those tams failed, and one of them was a SIM. This is not the softest bubble I have ever seen. What makes this almost a post mortem even more, is that of 20 teams playing tomorrow, 18 are in the WIS top 22 and thus fairly safe. In other words, great movement is unlikely.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
SWAC
Todays loss took Grambling off the board.
Locks:
Alabama A&M (12-1), Texas Southern (WIS: 12-1)
Needs help:
Liberty (8-5, WIS: 37, SOS: 28): Beat a SIM today, but with the bubble not really softening, Liberty now needs a confluence of concidences to make it (and I need a simpler vocabulary).
NEC
Lock:
Lehigh (13-0), Albany (11-2)
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (10-3, WIS: 31: SOS: 78): Well, CCU is still not quite in, but did ok, MOV wise the last to days, and chances are, that was enough. Only played Lehigh among tomorrows contestants.
Sacred Heart (9-4, WIS. 38, SOS: 24): This SIM lost today, and now only has the slimmest of chances to make the big dance.
MEAC
Locks:
Duquesne (12-1), Howard (11-2), La Salle (12-1)
Ivy League
Locks:
Princeton: (13-0)
Yale (12-1, WIS: 21, SOS: 100): Moved straight up to lock as Yale took advantage of 2 turnovers and squeezed by Harvard.
Needs help / needs the autobid:
Harvard (7-6, WIS: 39, SOS: 11): With todays loss, the hopes are reaaaallly slim. Harvard played a lot of finalists: Drake, Duquesne, YSU and Princeton and Yale
Gateway
Lock:
Northern Iowa (11-2),
Savannah State (11-2, WIS: 20, SOS: 54): Out of ways to mess up, and clearly having enough coushon.
Should be in:
Florida International (10-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 73): Demolished a SIM today and moved 3 spots up. With no game left, FIU can now feel a modicum of safety. Maybe even avoid an 8 seed. Played Texas State, Georgia Southern and NIU.
Work to do:
Youngstown State (10-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 86): For a lot of team the "work to do" is a misnomer today, but it will be really true for YSU. Despite beating Sim after SIm after SIM, YSU has been treading water, as the SOS was leaking. Because of that, YSUs game will be the one bubble teams will look at the most interesting, with bubble teams definitely rooting for NIU to demolish YSU. Considering the first duel with NIU was a 44-3 pasting a loss is probable tomorrow. However, the margin to the bubble is such, that it is possible that YSU makes the field even with a loss. In that case the margin of defeat could be really important, as in YSU needs to keep this close. But if they do lose, it will not all be in their own hands. YSU previously played Texas State and NIU.
Big Sky
Locks:
St Mary’s (13-0), Texas State (11-2)
Portland State (9-4, WIS: 25, SOS: 4): Out of opportunities to mess up, and can now plan for being a tough 6 or 7 seed that nobody wants to face.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Cal Poly (9-4, WIS: 30, SOS: 33): Dispatched of their SIM opponent today and is in good position. That said, the distance to the bubble isn’t such, that Cal Poly should go without a nervous look at the scoreboards tomorrow. Weirder things than nonplaying teams losing three spots have been known to happen. Previously played Albany, San Diego and St Marys.
Northern Arizona (9-4, WIS: 34, SOS: 48): Its probably fair to say that NAU was the big loser of the day. Leading at the half, they couldn’t hold on vs Montana State. Now NAU is on the wrong side of the bubble. It is however possible they might still get in, if for example YSU stumbles and some other team has an inexplicable loss in SOS (happens sometimes). Chances are not huge tough. It doesn’t help, that of the teams they played only Texas State is in action tomorrow.
Atlantic 10
Locks:
Maine (12-1), William & Mary (12-1)
Should be in:
Richmond: (11-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 66): Took a bad pasting from Maine today. Still, the SOS improved nicely (almost 30 spots) and consequently the WIS ranking didn’t fall through the floor. Richmond unless things go super weird, Richmond will be playing on Saturday.
Work to do:
Villanova (8-5, WIS: 33, SOS: 13): Won today over a 2-11 SIM. But failed to improve their chances when they lost to SIM Rhode Island yesterday (to be fair RIU has human recruited talent). Despite that, Villanova is still really close to the playoffs. If YSU falls far tomorrow or if their SOS moves better than the one of a team just ahead of them, they might still get in. Will be rooting for previous oponents Howard, Alabama A&M and William & Mary tomorrow.
Rhode Island (10-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 95): Taking a jump in the rankings today, and so chances of a SIM making the playoffs are getting very real. Erichanville never made the plaayoffs the last 4 seasons, but the players he left behind just might. That said, RIU may not make it after all. The margin toward Villanova is not that big. Only played WM among tomorrows contestants.
Southern Conference
ETSUs ranking didn’t improve enough, so I took ETSU off the board.
Locks:
Georgia Southern (12-1)
Appalachian State (13-0, WIS: 24, SOS: 111): Despite losing today, I finally put app state to lock status, as the drop wasn’t all that bad. The fact that GSU only got 6 points more probably helped in that regard.
Should be in:
Western Carolina (10-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 74): Beat a SIM and lost a couple of spots today, but at least not more. WCU isn’t completely safe, but with only one potential bid stealer playing tomorrow and their WIS score difference to spot 33 being decently big, I think WCU should be in, maybe look at the scoreboard sometimes, but not with overly much sweat on their faces. Played GSU and Northwestern State.
Northwestern State (11-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 69): Pasted a Sim today. Should be fine and quite playoff safe, as playing a 12-1 team usually doesn’t cost many spaces even in case of an L. Still, if they weren’t playing tomorrow, they’d be a lock with that resume.
Pioneer Football League
Lock:
San Diego (11-2), Drake (13-0),
Dayton (12-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 109): I assume some bubble teams were hoping for SDU to beat Dayton today. But Dayton winning was another strike for the bubble not getting all that soft. With SDU Dayton now also has at least one nice win over a team that will make the playoffs.
Autobid only:
Jacksonville (8-5, WIS: 42, SOS: 59): At this point it is clear that Jacksonvillee is the only potential bid stealer tomorrow. Bubble teams everywhere will be rooting against them. I think it is fair to say that wareagles chances in his first season are not outstanding. But I wouldn’t exactly call it a done deal, after all Jacksonville played 4 likely playoff teams, and while the offense generally struggled, it was not always a runaway train. That said, Drak is likely as good or better thaan any team they’ve played so far.
Ohio Valley Conference
I don’t know when the last time was that thee OVC only sent three teams to the playoffs, but unless EIU or Samford can climb into the field, this is what happens.
Lock:
Eastern Kentucky (11-2), Jacksonville State (11-2), Tennessee Tech (13-0)
Work to do:
Eastern Illinois (8-5, WIS: 35, SOS: 10). Kept its playoff hopes alive with a second half comeback vs UTM today. EIU had a tough schedule overall, playing 10 top 50 teams. However looking closely, they are 0-4 vs top 30 teams. If they miss the playoffs, then it is likely the loss to Samford, combined with not always stellar MOVs that will be the reason. That said, hope is definitely not over, as it would take a surprise or two, but not a miracle for EIU to jump up and still get in. Previous opponents in action tomorrow include: NIU, EKU and T-Tech.
Need help:
Samford (9-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 49): Beat a good SIM today, but only made a small jump. The resume has 3 losses to top 5 teams, which is obvious hard luck to be playing in conference. However, if we contemplate that the nicest win is clearly EIU then that is largely made up for by the early season loss to a 4-9 SIM. Overall Samford, is now in a position where hope is the key word, but realistically it would take a good number of surprises for them to make it in. Previously played T-Tech and EKU.
