DIAA Bubble Watch, Day 12. Drinking on the rooftop.
Day 12. This will probably not be a complete watch. Too busy today.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
SWAC
Locks:
Alabama A&M (11-1), Texas Southern (WIS: 11-1)
Work to do:
Liberty (7-5, WIS: 35, SOS: 21):Couldn’t quite dig out of the hole they LU dug itself in the first half. That is a problem. Liberty isn’t without a shot now, the bubble can still be seen from where they stand. Alas, some other teams have to fall. That said, some teams just might.
Grambling State (8-4, WIS: 41, SOS: 69): If Grambling wants to make the playoffs after all, then today was a good step in the right direction. That said, this might have been a little bit too late. On the other hand, with Southern coming tomorrow, GSU will likely loose, but at least it is an oportunity to make up a lot of space (i.e. the nine spots that are missing)
Pioneer Football League
I took CSU off the board after todays loss.
Lock:
San Diego (11-1), Drake (12-0)
Should be in:
Work to do:
Dayton (11-1, WIS: 26, SOS: 120): Worst SOS in the country, but the record is starting to tune out the schedule. I think Dayton will be ok if they lose tomorrow, but it wouldn’t be comfortable at all and what happens to teams who have these kind of extreme SOS numbers is sometimes hard to predict.
Needs help / conference championship:
Jacksonville (7-5, WIS: 42, SOS: 50): Beat CSU today to win the division. I still don’t see how they can get in without winning the Conference Championship.
Ohio Valley Conference
EKU locked up the south. Petes legacy is ensured ;). However, it feels like the OVC might only be a three bid conference this season. That will mean a lot less money than usually.
Lock:
Eastern Kentucky (10-2), Jacksonville State (10-2), Tennessee Tech (12-0)
Need help:
Eastern Illinois (7-5, WIS: 37, SOS: 11). Its no shame to lose to T-Tech, but EIU was essentially already out of margin for error. Could they get in? Sure, but at this point it looks like they will need a decent bit of luck to make it and don’t have it in their own hands anymore.
Samford (8-4, WIS: 39, SOS: 58): It was not a bad effort on friday, but it was Samfords 4th loss. This SOS and 9-4 could be good enough, but with the remaining SIMs, the SOS has already fallen a bit. I don’t really see Samford getting in right now, but they are close enough to keep hoping. Hope is a bit fading tough.
NEC
Lock:
Lehigh (12-0), Albany (10-2)
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (9-3, WIS: 31: SOS: 60): The SOS dropped today, but the WIS ranking did not. It might still do tomorrow. This will end up being a really close call, but I feel better about it today than yesterday.
Sacred Heart (8-4, WIS. 34, SOS: 37): Currently the only SIM on the watch, as Sacred hearts WIS ranking got pretty nice. I still don’t think they will get in, with Albany waiting on day 13. That said, the SOS might get really nice tomorrow.
MEAC
Playoffwise the MEAC is a done deal. 3 Teams are in.
Locks:
Duquesne (11-1), Howard (10-2)
La Salle (11-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 63): Got to complete safety with beating Delaware State today.
Ivy League
Locks:
Princeton: (12-0)
Should be in:
Work to do:
Yale (11-1, WIS: 24, SOS: 103): Yale is in a good position, and close to “should be in”. However, the SOS took quite a hit today, and with Harvard on the docket Yale may take some tumble. Likely not enough to miss the playoffs tough.
Needs help / needs the autobis:
Harvard (6-5, WIS: 38, SOS: 24): Beat three SIMs the last three days, and still lost ground. In my opinion, the OOC was even thougher than it looks on paper but 1-4 is never good. There is a small chance beating Yale on day 13 could get Harvard into the field. That said Harvard is slightly in trouble concerning at-larges and probably needs a soft bubble and to at least make the championship game, which still wouldn’t be a guarantee. That said, Harvard is the defending conference champ, and they just might win the conference yet again. After all they were close to beating Princeton earlier this season.
Gateway
SSU losing to FIU, probably means one more team in the playoffs for the Gateway
Lock:
Northern Iowa (10-2),
Should be in:
Savannah State (10-2, WIS: 20, SOS: 46): Lost to FIU toda. That is likely no disaster, as the fall in the rankings was not big. SSU is likely going to the playoffs second season in a row, unless it loses to a SIM tomorrow and goes unlucky on top of that.
Work to do:
Youngstown State (9-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 83): At the start of in division play YSUs SOS was 32. Now its 83. As a consequence YSU has barely moved forward despite 4 wins. This is not a usual situation for a program that ended up in the WIS top ten in 11 of the last 12 seasons. If YSU should lose the conference championship, it will be a close call. I think it would be ok, but not by much.
Florida International (9-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 75): Bubble teams everywhere probably weren’t happy, but I doubt FIU sympathises, as todays W over SSU likely means they will make the playoffs. Will it be clear? No, there will still be some sweating.... and FIU does have to take care of that SIM tomorrow.
Big Sky
Montana State got taken off the board due to its loss to TSU.
Locks:
St Mary’s (12-0)
Texas State (10-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 13): Beating Montana is another nice win, wrapping up the division for TSU. At this point this is all about seeding and titles.
Should be in:
Portland State (8-4, WIS: 25, SOS: 4): A win over Cal Poly proved again that PSU deserves to be in the playoffs, as that is now wins over two top 30 teams. Even if they lost to a SIM tomorrow, they might still get in.
Work to do:
Cal Poly (8-4, WIS: 29, SOS: 26): Couldn’t quite pull it out vs PSU today but stayed quite ok for the moment, also wins over EWSU and NAU still look decent. Will probably lose a bit of SOS and maybe a spot or two. It will not be comfortable, but it sure looks positive for Cal Poly right now.
Northern Arizona (9-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 54): Beat a SIM today. NAU enters day 13 square on the bubble. And with playing Montana tomorrow, it sure feels like that is a “win and your in, lose and your out” game.
Atlantic 10
The failure to score in the second half doomed FAU, which is off the board now.
Locks:
Maine (11-1)
William & Mary (11-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 66): Completely safe.
Should be in:
Richmond: (11-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 91): Managed to beat FAU today, which created a good deal of margin now. With Maine coming up, there is a good chance that Richmond will end up 11-2, but Richmond is unlikely to fall far as the SOS will likely improve.
Work to do:
Villanova (7-5, WIS: 33, SOS:8): Ehmm. Loosing to SIMs is a great way to miss thee playoffs, so Bubble teams everywhere wer probably cheering Villanovas faux-pas. That said they didn’t fall very far. But with playing a 2-10 Sim tomorrow, Villanova may not move up the spot it needs to. But if other teams make their own mistakes tomorrow, they may quite well get in, particularly as the other teams in the low thirties aren’t world beaters either.
Rhode Island (9-3, WIS: 36, SOS: 96): There is now a second SIM in the watch, as Rhode Island beat Villanova today, getting close to the bubble. And with playing a 7-5 Sim tomorrow, there it is actually not that farfetched, that this SIM could really get in.
Southern Conference
Locks:
Georgia Southern (11-1)
Should be in:
Appalachian State (12-0, WIS: 21, SOS: 117): Despite being 12-0 still not completely safe, because the SOS is just that bad. That said, at this point App State would have to do something weird to miss the playoffs, and even a loss on Thursday vs GSU should usually be ok. But a win and a conference championship game would be so much more fun.
Work to do:
Western Carolina (9-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 59): Yes, it was a loss to Georgia Southern, but at least they kept the game close. The SOS improved, but will take a hit tomorrow, and with other teams stumbling, WCU should be ok. Unless they lose to that SIM tomorrow that is.
Northwestern State (10-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 68): Northwestern is actually quite safe. The only way they could possibly miss the playoffs involves the combination for a loss to a Sim and another one in the CC game (yes CC games can also have their risks). Particularly the former is not likely to happen tough.
Needs help:
East Tennessee State (6-6, WIS: 40, SOS: 3): Close to being taken off the watch, since the SOS cannot really goup with the remaining opponents and the distance to the bubble has not gotten smaller. In theory it is possible to get in with 6 losses, if the SOS is beyond stellar and the bubble super soft. The SOS is excellent but not beyond stellar, the bubble softish, but not as soft as it would need to be.
