DIAA Bubble Watch, Day 11. Drinking on the rooftop.
Day 11.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
Also, I don’t think there will be a watch tomorrow.
SWAC
Locks:
Alabama A&M (10-1), Texas Southern (WIS: 10-1)
Work to do:
Liberty (7-4, WIS: 33, SOS: 32): Couldn’t keep up with Southern today. Still, this is not the end of all dreams, given that the SOS is okish. Things moved in a way, that maybe they could get in with 9-4, but it would be cutting it reeeaally close. Which means tomorrows game with Grambling is crucial.
Grambling State (7-4, WIS: 42, SOS: 66): Beat a Sim for the third day in a row. It is the loss to a SIM on Saturday, that has GSU in real trouble of missing the playoffs. Even winning out might not be enough, but with Southern and Liberty still coming up, GSU could theoretically make a push and impress enough to get in. Tmorrow is an elimination gam tough.
Atlantic 10
Locks:
Maine (10-1)
Should be in:
William & Mary (10-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 48): Essentially ran out of ways that I can see them miss the playoffs, even more given that the rest is SIMs.
Work to do:
Richmond: (10-1, WIS: 25, SOS: 98): Has been biding its time until playing FAU and Maine on the last two days. If Richmond can keep serve vs SIMs that should already go in the right direction, even with a decreasing SOS. Whether they need to beat one of Maine or FAU on top of that is not quite certain, but with how far the SOS has decreased, the answer is probably yes.
Villanova (7-4, WIS: 29, SOS:12): Villanova definitely needs to take care of the SIMs, then things are likely gonna be ok. Then again SOS rankings that are real high or real low (falling from 10 to 20 in SOS) can impact the WIS rankings much more than middling one (falling from 50 to 60 in SOS).
Needs help:
Florida Atlantic (8-3, WIS: 49 SOS: 113): Beat another SIM today. The SOS will improve a a bit, but FAU definitely needs to win out, and also needs help from the bubble and should urgently do something for its MOVs. The best opportunity to make a little jump comes on tomorrow vs Richmond. This is an elimination game.
Southern Conference
Locks:
Georgia Southern (10-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 62): Beat the last Sim on its schedule today. The remaining 2 opponents will push the SOS to a point where even losing both games would not be a problem. Tomorrows game vs WCU is important for the conference tough.
Should be in:
Appalachian State (11-0, WIS: 22, SOS: 115): It was an absolutely crazy last minute in the game vs WCU, but app State came out on top. At this point App State would have to do something weird to miss the playoffs, and even a loss on Thursday vs GSU should be ok.
Work to do:
Western Carolina (9-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 76): It was an unfortunate loss today. And there is no break with GSU coming in tomorrow. The SOS will improve, but take a hit the day after, so A loss would likely have WCU square on the bubble in the end.
Northwestern State (8-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 58): Beat its last human opponent yesterday. Unless there is a loss to a SIM, Northwestern should be completely fine. The reason this is not a should be in yet, is that they could lose to a SIM, and then still have a CC game.
Needs help:
East Tennessee State (5-6, WIS: 39, SOS: 3): Managed a comeback win over Nicholls today. In theory it is possible to get in with 6 losses, if the SOS is stellar. Right now ETSUs SOS is. But the remaining 2 teams are a combined 5-17, and other teams would kind of have to fall back. I don’t think the chances are good.
Pioneer Football League
Drake has taken the north division today.
Lock:
San Diego (10-1), Drake (11-0)
Should be in:
Work to do:
Dayton (9-1, WIS: 27, SOS: 116): Beat a SIM today. The SOS is horrible. I think Dayton will be ok if they can get past the SIMs, but if they lose to SDU on day 13, it will not be comfortable at all.
Needs help:
Charleston Southern (7-4, WIS: 66, SOS: 106), Jacksonville (5-5, WIS: 45, SOS: 54): At this point, I think either team really only has the Conference Championship as a viable path. That makes tomorrows game an eliminator.
Ohio Valley Conference
The picture in the OVC is starting to be much clearer. 3 teams are in, EIU and samfrd might get there, and everybody else seems justa modicum too far out to have a shot.
Lock:
Eastern Kentucky (9-2), Jacksonville State (10-1), Tennessee Tech (11-0)
Work to do:
Eastern Illinois (7-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 25). Hasn’t really blown out anyone this season (clearest win was 38-13) and todays W vs Marist continued that trend. EIU is approaching the bubble, but if they lose another one, then I don’t like their chances. And well tomorrows game is vs T-Tech, so that is a high hurdle to take.
Need help:
Samford (7-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 30): It was not a bad effort today, but it was Samfords 4th loss. This SOS and 9-4 could be good enough, but with the remiaing SIMs, chances are the SOS will fall a bit. I don’t really see Samford getting in right now, but they are close enough to keep hoping. If a few teams mess up, it could get there.
NEC
Lock:
Lehigh (11-0),
Albany (9-2, WIS: 14, SOS: 15): Beat a SIM today, which in Albanys situation is plenty good enough. Even with the wildest imagination, this team is making the playoffs.
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (8-3, WIS: 31: SOS: 47): Lost clearly today, but the SOS jumped higher than I would have thought. That said, this is completely temporary, as CCUs remaining oponents are 2-20 (Gulp!). This will end up being a really close call, and right now I don’t love CCUs chances.
Sacred Heart (6-4, WIS. 35, SOS: 27): Currently the only SIM on the watch, as Sacred hearts WIS ranking got pretty nice. I still don’t think they will get in, with Albany waiting on day 13.
MEAC
Todays loss to Dusquesne eliminated Delaware State
Locks:
Duquesne (10-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 41): Well three wins over 3 humans in three days have Dusquenes resume looking a lot nicer. At this point it is probably fair to say, that they are looking forward to playing Howard in the CC.
Howard (9-2, WIS: 12, SOS: 19): Nothing much happened the last two days, which was plenty good for a Howard team that is quickly running out of opportunities to get into trouble.
Should be in:
La Salle (10-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 67): Todays win over Norfolk brought a good bit of playoff certainty. The remaining oponents will likely improve the SOS. That said, why risk anything? Beating Delaware tomorrow would lock things up, losing could make things a little bit more interesting.
Ivy League
Locks:
Princeton: (11-0, WIS: 16, SOS: 92): This was honestly one of the more boring ways to safely make it to the playoffs. But todays W over Holy Cross did seal the deal.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Yale (10-1, WIS: 21, SOS: 90): Yale is ina good position, and close to “should be in”. However, the SOS will not improve the next two days, and with Harvard on the docket, it may not actually be easy to get unblemished through this. Still I think even losing to Harvard wouldn’t quit cost Yale a playoff bid. However if they perform vs SIMs the way they did today(10-19 vs Brown) then the MOV will not help.
Needs help:
Harvard (6-5, WIS: 38, SOS: 14): Beat two SIMs the last two days, and still lost ground. In my opinion, the OOC was even thougher than it looks on paper but 1-4 is never good. Beating Yale on day 13 could get Harvard into the field. That said Harvard is slightly in trouble concerning at-larges and probably needs a soft bubble and to at least make the championship game, which still wouldn’t be a guarantee. That said, Harvard is the defending conference champ, and they just might win the conference yet again. After all they were close to beating Princeton earlier this season.
Gateway
Lock:
Northern Iowa (9-2),
Should be in:
Savannah State (10-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 59): Bounced back vs a SIM today. This might still be SSUs best season in some time. SSU has already beaten 3 top 50 teams including Duquesne and has likely one loss margin to the bubble, with FIU left. Even a loss two the remaining SIM probably be ok, but better not test that theory. Beat FIU tomorrow, and this bid is locked up.
Work to do:
Youngstown State (8-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 68): The SOS took a beating today. This is not a usual situation for a program that ended up in the WIS top ten in 11 of the last 12 seasons. Given, that there are no other humans in the division YSU will make the conference championship. Alas the SOS will suffer further.. If YSU should lose the conference championship, it will be a very close call.
Florida International (8-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 97): Demolished a SIM today. FIU still hasn’t beaten a human opponent this season. The SOS may improve slightly, but not to the degree where they would get in with a fourth loss. As a consequence it si fairly simple to me, and will all play out tomorrow: If FIU beats SSU tomorrow (and the SIM on Thursday) and that will push the SOS to get FIU in. They lose tomorrow, and they are out.
Big Sky
Todays loss eliminated EWU.
Locks:
St Mary’s (11-0, WIS: 11, SOS: 72): My imagination is not finding any ways anymore, in which St. Marys could miss the playoffs.
Should be in:
Texas State (9-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 20): The only way I can see Texas State miss the playoffs is if they somehow lose to Montana State, but win the conference anyway and then lose in the conference championship, plus the bubble being hard. Unlikely combination.
Work to do:
Cal Poly (8-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 43): Probably ended EWUs season today. Its possible they could get in with a 4th loss, it feels like that would put them square on the bubble. That makes the game vs PSU tomorrow one that the bubble watch will see with interest.
Portland State (7-4, WIS: 24, SOS: 5): Looking at whom they’ve beaten, this team deserves to make the playoffs. However, with Cal Poly and a bad SIM still coming up, things could still go wrong because with a fifth loss the SOS would have to hold up nicely. As of now I think PSUs chances of getting in even with a loss tomorrow are above 50%, but not much higher.
Northern Arizona (8-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 49): Only managed 15 points, but squeezed by SFA anyway. Still, doing something for the MOV would have been good. Chances are NAU will enter day 13 square on the bubble. And with playing Montana on that day, it sure feels like that will be a “win and your in lose and your out” game.
Montana State (8-3, WIS: 50, SOS: 110): I am upgrading Montana back up again because the WIS ranking finally more more than 10 spots, but it could be a short pleasure. The SOS might move in Montanas favor but It would have to be a lot for them to make it in but with the remaining oponents being 17-5 it is theoretically doable. I guess having NAU and TSU still on the docket, should be seen as an opportunity to impress. Alas it is more likely to end Montanas hopes of making the playoffs this season.
