DIAA Bubble Watch, Day 10. Drinking on the rooftop.
Day 10 arrives, and things are getting serious for many, while quit a few teams have made the jump to lock or should be in, and can now focus on winning their respective conference.
As always, first are the disclaimers: 1) In season when I manage to do it, I will usually keep it up to date ok, but I reserve the right not to have time or not to care sometimes. 2) When I do updates I tend not to reinvent the wheel... this means that if nothing has changed, the text may be the same as the day(s) before for a certain team. 3) I tend to be a "worst case scenario" guy in the watch. Unless I really can't see a way for a team to miss the playoffs, it is unlikely to be a lock. 4) Yes, I pay attention to my own conference before anybody else. That is a perk of being in the SWAC. Go SWAC! 5) i do this also sometimes for Warner. Then it is just in the Warner Forum.
SWAC
Locks:
Alabama A&M (9-1, WIS: 5 SOS: 19): Could likely lose all remaining games, and would still get in. That is lock status.
Texas Southern (WIS: 9-1, WIS: 10, SOS: 43): Southern won’t miss the playoffs. Even if they lost all three remaining gamees, the improving SOS would likely put them in. And that is theoretical anyway as Southern is more probably to run the table.
Work to do:
Liberty (6-3, WIS: 33, SOS: 49): Keeps inching closer to the top 32. The two earlier last second losses still hurt tough and without those Liberty would be in much better position. Tomorrows game vs Southern is a high bar, since Liberty hasn’t beaten Southern in quite some time. Things moved in a way, that maybe they could get in with 9-4, but it would be cutting it reeeaally close.
Grambling State (6-4, WIS: 41, SOS: 41): Beat a Sim for the second day in a row. It is the loss to a SIM on Saturday, that has GSU in real trouble of missing the playoffs. Even winning out might not be enough, but with Southern and Liberty still coming up, GSU could theoretically make a push and impress enough to get in.
Gateway
Lock:
Northern Iowa (8-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 11): That’s 7 wins in a row now, and no human teams left.
Should be in:
Savannah State (9-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 57): Bounced back vs a SIM today. This might still be SSUs best season in some time. SSU has already beaten 3 top 50 teams including Duquesne and has likely one loss margin to the bubble, with FIU left. Even a loss two one of the two remaining SIMs could maybe not spell finality, but better not test that theory.
Work to do:
Youngstown State (7-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 44): This is not a usual situation for a program that ended up in the WIS top ten in 11 of the last 12 seasons. YSU took forgivable losses to Tx State, Jacksonville and a beating from a surging NIU. But right now, Gardener-Webb (5-4) is the only win over a team with a winning record. Now given, that there are no other humans in the division YSU will make the conference championship. Alas the SOS will suffer, the remaining opponents are 6-24. If YSU should lose the conference championship, it might be a very close call.
Florida International (7-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 87): Today was a setback. FIU lost a few spots and still ahsn’t beaten a human opponent this season. The SOS may improve slightly, but not to the degree where they would get in with a fourth loss. But if they could beat SSU on Wednesday, then FIUs chances should be just slightly more than 50% to make it in.
Big Sky
Should be in:
St Mary’s (10-0, WIS: 12, SOS: 73): 52-7 over PSU is what is called a statement win! St Marys is better than its ranking, which is depressed due to playing five bad SIMs in OOC, but wins over TxStat and Montana say good things. The SOS is still not awesome, and with really great imagination one could see St Mary miss the playoffs. But it takes really really great imagination.
Texas State (8-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 17): Kept moving vs SFA today. TSU is fairly safe despite its two losses. The schedule was tough and has some nice wins. And the remaining schedule has only two sims and Montana.
Work to do:
Cal Poly (7-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 39): Moved back despite todays win. Its possible they could get in with a 4th loss, but it doesn’t feel super probable. EWU and PSU on Tuesday and Wednesday look like must wins to me right now.
Portland State (6-4, WIS: 24, SOS: 4): Another loss to a really good team PSU also has some real wins although Northwestern is likely the only playoff team they have beaten so far. That said, with an SOS this good, even a fifth loss might not be a death knell, but it would cut it close. To be sure to make it, PSU needs Wednesdays game vs Cal Poly.
Northern Arizona (7-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 30): Beat a SIM today. This season is a vast improvement over last season with 3 wins over humans. However, if NAU were to lose another game, they’d need a soft bubble. Winning out is the only way to be sure to make it in, which makes day 13s date with Montana seem all the more important. But first needs to take care of SFA tomorrow.
Eastern Washington (7-3, WIS: 59, SOS: 101): The WIS ranking will still need to take a jump, but there are opportunities vs Cal Poly tomorrow and if that works out vs SM on Thursday. But those opportunities come with the very real risk (and probability) of getting eliminated from playoff contention.
Needs help:
Montana State (7-3, WIS: 62, SOS: 109): Despite the win over a SIM today, I downgraded Montana, as the the MOVs keep not impressing, and the SOS and WIS ranking just aren’t budging so far. That said, the SOS might move a bit in Montanas favor but It would have to be a lot for them to make it in. I guess having NAU and TSU still on the docket, should be seen as an opportunity to impress.
Atlantic 10
Locks:
Maine (9-1)
Should be in:
William & Mary (9-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 55): Got a nice W over a feisty Villanova team, giveeing WM its first win over a human coached team with a winning record. There are now only SIMs left, and unless WM loses to one of them, it can go fairly fearlessly into the conference championship game.
Work to do:
Richmond: (9-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 90): Biding its time until playing FAAU and Mainee on the last two days. If Richmond can keep serve vs SIMs that should already go in the right direction, even with a decreasing SOS. Whether they need to beat one of Maine or FAU on top of that is not quite certain, but with how far the SOS is currently decreasing, the answer is probably yes.
Villanova (6-4, WIS: 28, SOS:10): One of the more interesting schedules took another turn in todays loss to WM. The WIS ranking didn’t really fall, but with the remaining 3 SIMs that could still happen. Villanova definitely needs to take care of the SIMs, then things are likely gonna be ok. Then again SOS rankings that are real high or real low (falling from 10 to 20 in SOS) can impact the WIS rankings much more than middling one (falling from 50 to 60 in SOS)
Needs help:
Florida Atlantic (7-3, WIS: 55 SOS: 110): Bounced back to beat a SIM today. The SOS will improve a tiny bit, but FAU definitely needs to win out, and also needs help from the bubble and should urgently do something for its MOVs. The best opportunity to make a little jump comes on Wednesday vs Richmond.
Southern Conference
Things at the top of the east are about to be headed for a collision.
Should be in:
Georgia Southern (9-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 61): On a nine game win streak. Previously Beat FIU and Jacksonville. It sure looks like Georgia Southern will not miss the playoffs unless they lose to a SIM.
Work to do:
Appalachian State (10-0, WIS: 26, SOS: 119): Most other unbeaten teams are in the 'should be in' category by now, but Appalachian State hasn't done enough for that. If you design the schedule that fails to make it in with two losses, this is how it looks (ok, SFA and ETSU having bad records is bad luck).But things are about to change: WCU is on the docket tomorrow and GSU on Thursday. Even two losses to WCU and GSo might be ok as the SOS is likely improving a lot. But it sure starts really low, so I have come to think that App State might have to win one of those two.
Western Carolina (9-1, WIS: 25 SOS: 97): Still hasn’t beaten a top 40 team, so WCU is in a fairly similar situation as App State before their meeting tomorrow, maybe a bit worse actually. One gets to safety, the other one might have to sweat it out.
Northwestern State (8-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 40): Beat its last human opponent today. Unless there is a loss to a SIM, Northwestern should be completely fine. The reason this is not a should be in yet, is that they could lose to a SIM, and then still have a CC game.
Needs help:
East Tennessee State (4-6, WIS: 38, SOS: 3): With todays loss to NWSU ETSU is now 2-6 vs humans, the wins are against NAU and Iona. In theory it is possible to get in with 6 losses, if the SOS is stellar. Right now ETSUs SOS is. But the remaining 3 teams are a combined 11-19. And first ETSU needs to get past Nicholls, so I think they’d have to be lucky to get in.
Pioneer Football League
The north has started and SDU vs Drake should be a really good game.
Lock:
San Diego (10-0)
Drake (10-0, WIS: 6, SOS: 64): After todays win over a previously unbeaten Dayton, there is really nothing to critisize on Drakes resume. The game tomorrow vs SDU is completely for conference.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Dayton (9-1, WIS: 27, SOS: 111): Dayton certainly didn’t look bad vs Drake, even tough it was an L. The SOS improved., alas it started as the worst schedule. It doesn’t help that clear wins over holy cross and EIU are not quite as impressive this season as in the past few seasons. I think Dayton will be ok if they can get past the SIMs, but if they lose to SDU on day 13, it will not be comfortable at all.
Needs help:
Charleston Southern (6-4, WIS: 58, SOS: 81), Jacksonville (5-5, WIS: 45, SOS: 48): At this point, both could still improve the WIS ranking a bit, but I think either team really only has the Conference Championship as a viable path.
Ohio Valley Conference
Finally the OVC portion of the watch started getting less labor intensive. I took St Peters, UTM and Marist of the board after todays losses.
Lock:
Eastern Kentucky (8-2),
Jacksonville State (9-1. WIS: 4, SOS: 12): Could lose all remaining games, and would still make the field. Needs to beat Samford tomorrow to stay in the hunt for the division title.
Tennessee Tech (9-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 70): Beat Marist today by 53 points. At this point even 3 losses vs the three humans would be ok, because the SOS is not going to get worse. Completely safe. If they beat Iona, they might even wrap up the divison early.
Work to do:
Samford (7-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 60): Demolished a SIM today. At this point I feel like Samford might need to upset Jacksonville on Tuesday. The way JSU is playing this season, that is a big ask. That said, even with a loss, Samford should fall super far, they’d likely at least stay on the watch.
Eastern Illinois (6-4, WIS: 39, SOS: 22). Thanks to a last minute TD, EIU is finally starting to gather some momentum with todays win over St Peters. Still, if they lose another one, then I don’t like their chances. And it is still three games vs humans. No stumbling vs Marist allowed.
Iona (6-4, WIS: 44, SOS: 57): Probably buried UTMs season in a shootout today. Things ar slowly moving in the right direction and the SOS will improve. That said, even if Iona wins out, its not qite sure that this would be enough. Playing T-tech tomorrow is an opportunity for a big statement… or a chance to get blown out and get close to elimination.
NEC
Lock:
Lehigh (10-0)
Should be in:
Albany (8-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 26): Beat a SIM today, which in Albanys situation is plenty good enough. There is lots of margin for error, as the SIMs in the division got okish records.
Work to do:
Central Connecticut (8-2, WIS: 30: SOS: 69):Jumped across the imaginary line today and would currently be in. Could porkbellybobs third season be the one where he finally makes it to the dance? Its quite possible. The SOS is likely to end somewhere between 70 and 90 (there will be a bad hit in the last two games), which would make it a very close call, should CCU lose to Lehigh. And that game is tomorrow.
Sacred Heart (6-4, WIS. 36, SOS: 21): I had to take a SIM onto the watch for the first time this season, as Sacred hearts WIS ranking got pretty nice. I still don’t think they will get in, with Albany waiting on day 13.
