Numbers Maze Vol. 2

Welcome back everyone to another edition of the Numbers Maze. We are going to to look at were we stand with them numbers. Men lie, women lie but numbers don't. Then again all statistical models are numbers and all statistical models are wrong but some are useful. Today we are just going to do some descriptive stuff, no models from me but all I do are models. We are going to look at the human coached teams and the numbers they put up this season. We will look at these numbers because everyone has played the same number of games at this point.

We are going to start with the average points per game teams were able to put up this season. I wonder if there has been any movement since the last time we looked at the numbers. After week 5 we had Colorado and Rutgers sitting at the top of the pile. Let us look at the top 20 and see were we are.

So from the graph there has been some changes. Rutgers moved down the list a bit but they are still towards the top of the list. We have the Hurricanes sitting at the top with the Longhorns close behind in second place, Colorado grab the final podium position. We still have 5 elites in the top 20, were are the other guys at? I think it is the same 5 as we saw earlier too. Now the reasons for the changes in the list vary, but I think the main reasons are facing humans and facing Sim AI teams. I hypothesize that the teams that face a lot of Sim AI teams are going to put up points and those that face more human coaches are going to put up less points but this point is disproved by the Sooners, they faced 11 human coaches and they still put up points. This tells me they just have a potent offense, I should know they wrecked me, needless to say I did not check myself. They did not even allow me to score a TD, so that defense is also potent. The Hurricanes at the top faced 9 human coaches and still put up points, so I guess if your offense is potent then your offense is potent, human or Sim AI opponent. I think it might be worthwhile to look into the offenses of some of these teams and pick a few things from them that work and try to adopt them for your offenses everybody.

Now in putting up these points did the teams also put up yards? After week 5 we had Colorado and Rutgers neck and neck in average yardage, I wonder what it looks like now:

Looks like Colorado was for real this year, which is to be expected the coach is a good coach. Rutgers might have slowed down a bit or the Hurricanes were like a hurricane and just swept the opposition out of the way and put up them yards. Colorado ended the season with the highest average yards per game followed by the Hurricanes and Rutgers grabbing a bronze medal in average yardage. We again have 5 elites, I think I am now sounding like a broken record with this 5 elites thing but the numbers do not lie people, numbers do not lie. There were 4 teams that averaged more than 600 yards per game, that it is a lot of yards, even for an all pass offense I think, and with that I challenge awags with his Bama team next season to move the needle past the 700 average yards mark. I wonder if the average yardage will just keep going up or will it max out at some point. Now we know who is moving the ball, I wonder how they are doing so.

Rutgers is back at the top of the list. These guys chuck the ball a lot, they just move it through the air like its nobody's business. They have Colorado right there with them again. The two teams are neck and neck with the third placed team a bit behind them and the third team are the Hurricanes. These top 3 teams just seem to be changing places amongst themselves. They might be offenses to study, like I said before. There seems to be 3 clusters for moving the ball in the air within the top 20. We have 1 team averaging less than 200 yards in the air and then 12 averaging between 200 and 400 yards through the air and the third group are those getting more than 400 but less than 600 yards in the air. I like that third group, though I think it might be an expensive group to be a part of as you need some good catchers of the ball, be it tall RBs or RBs and also a good QB to throw the ball to those guys. With the RBs you want them ideally to be able to catch the ball out of the back field and also be able to run the ball for you.

We have a completely different top group for running the ball than we had in the graph above. This should not surprise us as most teams either run the ball well or they throw it well. The top running team on average is Virginia Tech, they had an OK QB group. The group has numbers which I want to see with my freshman QB than my senior QB. Their group of running backs are ranked as the 5th best in the conference and they still managed to top the running charts. The other coaches with better RBs might just use them differently. Rutgers and Colorado are still in the top 20 at running the ball which makes me happy, as it seems they are not strictly all pass teams. I like balanced teams, they make things seem a bit more realistic. VT topped the running list as early as week 5, so it seems they stuck true to who they are, they might have even run a bit more as that average increased a bit more.

Everyone knows the old adage, defense wins you championships, now with that in mind let us look at the other side of the ball and see if the teams topping the defensive lists are in positions to win championships.

If the opposition can not keep their QB upright that means they are unable to hurt you. Colorado State managed to put the QB on his backside more than any other team this year. Rutgers and the Hurricanes were very close in this department. Putting the QB on his backside is very important for a team. The top 3 teams put the QB on his backside more than 40 times this season, that is a lot, that's an average of 3 sacks per game, which seems like it is not a lot but look at it this way, that is a series with nothing to show. Everyone has lost some games by a single possession and that series was the possession. So yeah, it is a big deal. How do you keep your guy upright, well I do not know. I have seen some teams carrying 8 OL and others carrying 10 OL, which is right, you tell me, I mean seriously I need to know, so please someone shoot me a site mail letting me know.

You also hope your defense can get you extra possessions and one of the ways to do this is through picks. To get these you need to have solid guys in coverage, from your LBs to your DBs. I read somewhere that these guys need to have a high G.I in order to get your those picks, but what do I know and again please someone let me know. For now let us look at the numbers, and have them tell us who is doing what.

The Cornhusker blackshirts did their job this year, look how far out they are. Man oh man, these guys did their jobs. They are so far ahead of everyone else, everyone take note of them blackshirts. Maryland did their thing too but Nebraska almost had double the picks that they had. The Sooners with coach blitziscomin round out the podium places with 20 picks. So the Sooners blitz you and also pick you off. You are always under duress with them boys and they do not like giving up TDs, come on coach you could have given the Aggies at least 1 TD to make it more of a game. So we know who is picking the ball off, the other question is who is making people put the ball on the ground.

Man that Nebraska defense is just working like a well oiled machine on the front and at the back. They pick you off and you say well let me run the ball and they make you put it on the ground. This is impressive, Cornhuskers under the guidance of coach willgibson. You have out together a fantastic defense here coach, and with what we said earlier about the old adage it will be worthwhile keeping an eye out for that Big 12 CC game tonight. The Longhorns are close by, in second place, seems like the Big 12 know how to make teams put the ball on the ground with 8 teams in the top 20 or maybe the Big 12 RBs can not hold on to the ball, not sure which it is. On defense I think you want a strong front 7 and a solid groups of DBs, I know stating the obvious. What did you expect from a guy who can not even score TDs.

Now this was just to sort of round out our look at the numbers since we last did so in week 5. I encourage everyone to compare these new lists with the ones from week 5 and see how things have changed or not changed. We will try to dive a bit more into the data as time passes. Do not forget to check for the conference title games tonight. Should be some good ones. I know that was a lot to take in so we will call it a day now and good luck to everyone in the CC games.